The Jolly Contrarian

Template:M premium summary crime tunnel vision

Background conditions

  • Mainly circumstantial evidence
  • Information glut
  • Expert overreach
  • High improbability, whatever the explanation
  • Getting there
  • Hopeful extrapolation
  • Base rate neglect
  • Confirmation bias
  • Staying there
  • Hindsight bias and the reiteration effect
  • Randle McMurphy’s dilemma
  • A worked example: Doctor Bob
  • A second worked example: Nurse Lucy
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