Trolley problem

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics →Go uptown Index: Click ᐅ to expand: Statistics Systems theory Tell me more Sign up for our newsletter — or just get in touch: for ½ a weekly 🍺 you get to consult JC. Ask about it here.

Does not the trolley problem make the misassumption that the points operator definitely knows what is ahead on the tracks on either side, and what the outcome of his actions will necessarily be. It’s a false paradox: those things can only really be seen in retrospect. The humans on either side of the track are autonomous agents, as are the passengers on the train. Given their state of knowledge, their actions are not predictable using expected values. If at the time you know of the future events, there are almost certainly things you can do to change the future events.