Efficient market hypothesis: Difference between revisions

no edit summary
(Created page with "{{a|g|}}The efficient market hypothesis, first formulated by Eugene Fama, states (broadly) that an investor cannot systematically beat the market because all important inf...")
 
No edit summary
 
(6 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{a|g|}}The [[efficient market hypothesis]], first formulated by Eugene Fama, states (broadly) that an investor cannot systematically beat the market because all important information is already priced into current share prices. This owes something to Adam Smith’s invisible hand: the infinite nudges and impulses of all investors in the market place nudge asset prices to the “correct” or “optimal” point, and anyone misvaluing an asset will instantly be picked off. Therefore, stocks ''already'', always trade at the fairest value, meaning that anyone who ''did'' beat the market basically fluked it.  
{{a|g|[[File:invisible bird.jpeg|450px|center|thumb|The invisible hand could not be reached for comment, yesterday.]]}}The [[efficient market hypothesis]], first formulated by Eugene Fama, states (broadly) that an investor cannot systematically beat the market because all important information is already priced into current share prices. This owes something to {{author|Adam Smith}}’s invisible hand and the wisdom of the crowd: the infinite nudges and impulses of all investors in the market who, between them, necessarily have more information in aggregate than you do, nudge asset prices to the “correct” or “optimal” point, and anyone valuing an asset with with poor information will instantly be picked off by a better-informed ''arbitrageur''.  


Arbitrageurs, statistical arbitrageurs, value investors like Warren Buffett and Edward Thorp, [[Behavioural psychology|behavioural psychologists]] and, most recently, a bunch of day-traders on [[GameStop|Reddit]], have begged to differ. The gist of their arguments: “the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent”
Therefore, stocks ''already'', always trade at the fairest value, meaning that anyone who ''does'' beat the market basically flukes it.  


The [[JC]] has spotted a variation of [[EMH]] in the legal world, which he calls the [[efficient language hypothesis]]: the universally known advantages in efficiency, clarity, brevity and productivity offered by simple, clear and plain legal drafting are such that sustained prolixity is impossible in commercial contracts, and all bilateral accords will eventually resolve themselves to, at most, terse bullet points rendered on a [[cocktail napkin]], and ideally some kind of mark-up language or machine code.
Statistical arbitrageurs, value investors like Warren Buffett and {{author|Edward Thorp}}, [[Behavioural psychology|behavioural psychologists]] and, most recently, a bunch of day-traders on [[GameStop|Reddit]], have begged to differ. The gist of their arguments: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
 
The [[JC]] has spotted a variation of [[EMH]] in the legal world: {{efficient language hypothesis capsule}}


Oddly, this seems to be taking longer to happen than anyone expected.  
Oddly, this seems to be taking longer to happen than anyone expected.