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=== ''Statistically'', it won’t be you. === | === ''Statistically'', it won’t be you. === | ||
The bigger the organisation, the less likely it is to be you. Your football team: one in 11 chance. Your work: one in 5,000. President of the USA: 9 in 300,000,000 <ref>working on the assumption there will be 9 presidents in your adult lifetime.</ref> And that’s before you take any account of the practical realities of the specific situation. | The bigger the organisation, the less likely it is to be you. Your football team: one in 11 chance. Your work: one in 5,000. President of the USA: 9 in 300,000,000 <ref>working on the assumption there will be 9 presidents in your adult lifetime.</ref> And that’s before you take any account of the practical realities of the specific situation. | ||
*The best | *The best person doesn’t always win. Donald Trump overcame 9 in 300,000,000 odds, remember. | ||
*Even if you are unusually talented, you’re | *Even if you are unusually talented, you’re have to be in the right place at the right time. | ||
*''Seven Habits of Highly Effective People'' sold 25,000,000 copies. So even if it were true that these were the difference between success and failure, bad news: your competition just got a whole lot stiffer. | *''Seven Habits of Highly Effective People'' sold 25,000,000 copies. So even if it were true that these were the difference between success and failure, bad news: your competition just got a whole lot stiffer. | ||
*The world wide web made your competition a whole lot stiffer yet. You’re not just competing with the village any more. You’re competing with 7 billion. | *The world wide web made your competition a whole lot stiffer yet. You’re not just competing with the village any more. You’re competing with 7 billion. | ||
===''Factually'', it won’t be you=== | ===''Factually'', it won’t be you=== | ||
You’re reading self-help books looking for a summary; a short-cut; some anecdotes of famous men — and women — which, it is claimed, will distil the essence of that great person’s success. These people got their success without the benefit of such short-cuts. | You’re reading self-help books looking for a summary; a short-cut; some anecdotes of famous men — and women — which, it is claimed, will distil the essence of that great person’s success. These people got their success without the benefit of such short-cuts. | ||
*If you stack all the | *If you stack all the | ||
=== [[Ten thousand hours]]? It’s | === [[Ten thousand hours]]? It’s not the whole story. === | ||
Put it this way: If you ''do'' put in ten thousand hours, there’s no guarantee you’ll make it. But if you ''don’t'', it is a pretty good guarantee you won’t. | |||
===Looking at existing success stories is a waste of time. === | ===Looking at existing success stories is a waste of time. === | ||
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*Curiously, our social sciences are brilliant at explaining how things happened, but utterly hopeless at predicting them in advance. | *Curiously, our social sciences are brilliant at explaining how things happened, but utterly hopeless at predicting them in advance. | ||
=== Any discipline worth getting to the top of has a rigid social hierarchy. Don’t underestimate it.=== | === Any discipline worth getting to the top of has a rigid social hierarchy. Don’t underestimate it.=== | ||
One of the main aims of any social hierarchy is making sure outsiders can only enter from the bottom. There are perfectly good reasons for this, but they have by products: | One of the main aims of any social hierarchy is making sure outsiders can only enter from the bottom. There are perfectly good reasons for this, but they have by-products: | ||
=== Look for work that is important but unglamorous === | |||
The income profile is different. Many people earning solid but not spectacular | |||