Mediocre you

“If you aim at the moon, you may only ever hit the top of the tree

But if you aim at the top of the tree you may never get off the ground”’’

It’s not so bad on the ground. And what good are you to anyone stuck in the top of a tree?

The Banker and the Fisherman

Organising principles

• Mean reversion
• Never mistake luck for talent
  • The investment manager who beat the Dow nineteen years in a row]]
  • Promotion by random
• Ten thousand hours buys you a ticket to the raffle.
  • You need to have innate skill
  • You need to be lucky
    • To catch the light at all
    • To be in the right place in the first place.

Statistically, it won’t be you.

The bigger the organisation, the less likely it is to be you. Your football team: one in 11 chance. Your work: one in 5,000. President of the USA: 9 in 300,000,000 And that’s before you take any account of the practical realities of the specific situation.

• The best man doesn’t always win.
• Even if you are unusually talented, you’re
• Seven Habits of Highly Effective People sold 25,000,000 copies. So even if it were true that these were the difference between success and failure, bad news: your competition just got a whole lot stiffer.
• The world wide web made your competition a whole lot stiffer yet. You’re not just competing with the village any more. You’re competing with 7 billion.

Factually, it won’t be you

You’re reading self-help books looking for a summary; a short-cut; some anecdotes of famous men — and women — which, it is claimed, will distil the essence of that great person’s success. These people got their success without the benefit of such short-cuts.

• If you stack all the

Looking at existing success stories is a waste of time.

• We are brilliant at fitting known facts to our narratives - confirmation bias.
• Curiously, our social sciences are brilliant at explaining how things happened, but utterly hopeless at predicting them in advance.

Any discipline worth getting to the top of has a rigid social hierarchy. Don’t underestimate it.

One of the main aims of any social hierarchy is making sure outsiders can only enter from the bottom. There are perfectly good reasons for this, but they have by products: