Template:M intro devil expected value
One response to these sort of calculations is they are a kind of gonzo science fiction. No-one actually knows what the odds of any of these things are, and your willingness to make up some number should render you less, not more, credible on the subject. And yet, there clearly is some chance that all of these terrible things might occur. And if there is some chance, how can you not try to figure out what that chance might be? You are free to quibble about the specific odds. Once you are in the argument, however, you will find it difficult to escape a certain logic. The expected value of reducing even the miniscule likelihood of an existential threat to all future human beings is far greater than the expected value of anything you might do to save the lives of the people who currently happen to be alive.