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Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder: Difference between revisions
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Examples: | Examples: | ||
*Maximally devolved government versus autocracy – Switzerland versus the Soviet Union. | *Maximally devolved government versus autocracy – Switzerland versus the Soviet Union. NATO a better model than the EU, which is a better model than the Soviet Union. | ||
*Air | *[[Air crash]]es each makes the next ''less'' likely because we learn from each. | ||
'''[[Extremistan]]''': | '''[[Extremistan]]''': | ||
*Financial | *[[Financial crash]]es. One mistake causes a snowball - fire in a crowded theatre. | ||
===Don’t mistake ''absence of evidence'' for ''evidence of absence''=== | ===Don’t mistake ''absence of evidence'' for ''evidence of absence''=== | ||
| Line 41: | Line 41: | ||
*The more frequently you look at data – the more immersed in it you get – the lower the signal to noise ratio. Annual stock prices tell you more than weekly, tell you more than daily, tell you more thsn hourly. | *The more frequently you look at data – the more immersed in it you get – the lower the signal to noise ratio. Annual stock prices tell you more than weekly, tell you more than daily, tell you more thsn hourly. | ||
74 – he who is without sin is less reliable than he who has sinned once. <br> | ===[[Signal-to-noise ratio]]=== | ||
{{quote|{{Taleb antifragile signal to noise}}}} | |||
74 – he who is without sin is less reliable than he who has sinned once - and someone who has made a lot of (different) errors is more reliable than someone has made none, because he has more experience to go on. <br> | |||
<br> | <br> | ||
101 – light control works; close control leads to overreaction. <br> | 101 – light control works; close control leads to overreaction. <br> | ||