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Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder: Difference between revisions
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Examples: | Examples: | ||
*Maximally devolved government versus autocracy – Switzerland versus the Soviet Union. NATO a better model than the EU, which is a better model than the Soviet Union. | *Maximally devolved government versus autocracy – Switzerland versus the Soviet Union. NATO a better model than the EU, which is a better model than the Soviet Union. | ||
*Air | *[[Air crash]]es each makes the next ''less'' likely because we learn from each. | ||
'''[[Extremistan]]''': | '''[[Extremistan]]''': | ||
*Financial | *[[Financial crash]]es. One mistake causes a snowball - fire in a crowded theatre. | ||
===Don’t mistake ''absence of evidence'' for ''evidence of absence''=== | ===Don’t mistake ''absence of evidence'' for ''evidence of absence''=== | ||
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*Reliance on data causes severe side effects. The proportion of spuriousness in the data increases as you get more data. Data is toxic and in large quantities. It is infinitely narratisable. The more you have the more easily narratisable. | *Reliance on data causes severe side effects. The proportion of spuriousness in the data increases as you get more data. Data is toxic and in large quantities. It is infinitely narratisable. The more you have the more easily narratisable. | ||
*The more frequently you look at data – the more immersed in it you get – the lower the signal to noise ratio. Annual stock prices tell you more than weekly, tell you more than daily, tell you more thsn hourly. | *The more frequently you look at data – the more immersed in it you get – the lower the signal to noise ratio. Annual stock prices tell you more than weekly, tell you more than daily, tell you more thsn hourly. | ||
===[[Signal-to-noise ratio]]=== | |||
{{quote|{{Taleb antifragile signal to noise}}}} | |||
74 – he who is without sin is less reliable than he who has sinned once - and someone who has made a lot of (different) errors is more reliable than someone has made none, because he has more experience to go on. <br> | 74 – he who is without sin is less reliable than he who has sinned once - and someone who has made a lot of (different) errors is more reliable than someone has made none, because he has more experience to go on. <br> | ||