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{{a|devil|}}{{dpn||n}}The mistake of attributing an emergent mathematical property of a group to some or all the individual members of the group. | {{a|devil|}}{{dpn||n}}The mistake of attributing an emergent mathematical property of a group to some or all the individual members of the group. | ||
The | The folly of reasoning from the general to the particular with statistics. | ||
For example, the [[Bill Gates on a bus]] paradox: the average wealth of 99 bankrupts and one billionaire is ten million dollars. But not one individual in the group has an income anywhere close to ten million dollars. | For example, the [[Bill Gates on a bus]] paradox: the average wealth of 99 bankrupts and one billionaire is ten million dollars. But not one individual in the group has an income anywhere close to ten million dollars. | ||
See also the “average fighter | See also the “average fighter pilot,” that Gladwellian character from any number of popular science books. | ||
Lesson one: do not manage from the average to the particular. | Lesson one: do not manage from the average to the particular. | ||
Then there is the story — oft repeated at a microscale, ''sans doubte'' — of the global investment bank which addressed its | Then there is the story — oft repeated at a microscale, ''sans doubte'' — of the global investment bank which addressed its gender pay gap by laterally recruiting a new [[general counsel]] for ten million dollars. Remaining victims of pay disparity remained unmoved, and undercompensated. (This is not to say don’t act to correct pay unfairness; just don’t do it by massaging the average. Seek out and rectify, you know, ''actual pay unfairness''. In the particular.) | ||
Lesson two: ''definitely'' do not manage from the particular to the average. | Lesson two: ''definitely'' do not manage from the particular to the average. | ||
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{{author|Rory Sutherland}} has an excellent [https://youtu.be/UirCaM5kg9E snippet about the danger of managing toward averages]. Among his reasons: | {{author|Rory Sutherland}} has an excellent [https://youtu.be/UirCaM5kg9E snippet about the danger of managing toward averages]. Among his reasons: | ||
====Find a niche=== | ====Find a niche==== | ||
The “average” is where everyone else will target their product. The markets will be mature, barriers to entry high, demand inelastic and margins slim. | The “average” is where everyone else will target their product. The markets will be mature, barriers to entry high, demand inelastic and margins slim. | ||
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====Don’t race to the bottom==== | ====Don’t race to the bottom==== | ||
Convergence on the same place everyone is converging isn’t good business, but a recipe for ''bankruptcy''. It is a race to the bottom. As with [[evolution]], the secret is to realise the process is a continuous drift ''from'' the unsatisfactory status quo to something else that doesn’t have that drawback, as opposed to a process converging on a consensus. The ecosystem is ''not'' seeking an equilibrium. It is perpetually seeking to ''escape'' it. | Convergence on the same place everyone is converging isn’t good business, but a recipe for ''bankruptcy''. It is a race to the bottom. As with [[evolution]], the secret is to realise the process is a continuous drift ''from'' the unsatisfactory status quo to something else that doesn’t have that drawback, as opposed to a process converging on a consensus. The ecosystem is ''not'' seeking an equilibrium. It is perpetually seeking to ''escape'' it. | ||
===Averagarianism=== | ===Averagarianism=== | ||
Averagarianism that forces actually different people into generic categories. It imputes commonalities that don’t really exist. Sanding off contours and wonky borders to make everything regular simply because that suits the hyper-scaled prerogatives of commerce. | Averagarianism that forces actually different people into generic categories. It imputes commonalities that don’t really exist. Sanding off contours and wonky borders to make everything regular simply because that suits the hyper-scaled prerogatives of commerce. | ||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
*{{br|The End of Average: How to Succeed in a World That Values Sameness}} | *{{br|The End of Average: How to Succeed in a World That Values Sameness}} | ||