Bayesian prior: Difference between revisions

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 Well, the start of your life is, across the cosmic stretch of human existence, like a random draw with a sequentially numbered birth year on each ball.
-Now imagine an array of one million hypothetical barrels containing balls engraved with sequentially numbered years, beginning at the dawn of civilisation which, for arguments sake, we shall call the fall of Troy.
+Now imagine an array of a million hypothetical barrels containing balls engraved with sequentially numbered years, beginning at the dawn of civilisation which, for arguments sake, we shall call the fall of Troy.
 The first barrel had just one ball, with the year in which Troy fell on it — the next has two:that year and the year after, and so on, up to one million years after the fall of Troy.
-What are the odds that your birthday would be drawn at random from each one of those barrels? We know the odds for the first 6,000 or so: zero. But thereafter we can see that the probability steadily declines the more balls there are in the barrel.
+Let's say your birth year was the 6001st after Troy. What are the odds that your birthday would be drawn at random from each of the million barrels? We know the odds for the first 6,000: zero. None of them have a ball 6001. Across the remaining 994,000 the probabilies fall from 1/6001 to 1/1,000,000. Using the same principle as above we can see that the probability is clustered somewhere nearer the “short end” (near 6001) than the “long end” (1,000,000).
+If we assume your birthdate is drawn randomly from all the birthdates available to you then this sort of implies everything is likely to go pltetas arriba sooner rather than later.
+This is rather like a malign inversion of the [[Lindy effect]].
+Assessing the probability that your ball came from a given barrel is somewhat complicated but clearly we can rule out barrels 1-6,000, andthe higher your birth year, the more probability there is that it resides in a higher barrel.
-Assessing the probability across all those million barrels is somewhat complicated but clearly the higher your birth year, the more probability there is that it resides in a higher barrel.
 {{sa}}