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Bayesian prior: Difference between revisions
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Then: | Then: | ||
{{L3}}You have already made several category errors, should not be talking about art, and if you are, no-one should be listening; but <li> | {{L3}}You have already made several category errors, should not be talking about art, and if you are, no-one should be listening; but <li> | ||
If nonetheless you still are, and they still are, and you are trying to estimate the statistical likelihood of a specific Elizabethan playwright being the best in history, then your knowledge that there were vastly fewer playwrights active in the Elizabethan period than have existed in all of history until now — which is a Bayesian “prior distribution” — might help you conclude that the odds of that Elizabethan playwright really being the best are vanishingly low.</ol> | If nonetheless you still are, and they still are, and you are trying to estimate the statistical likelihood of a specific Elizabethan playwright being the best in history, then your knowledge that there were vastly fewer playwrights active in the Elizabethan period than have existed in all of history until now — which is a Bayesian “prior distribution” — might help you conclude that the odds of that Elizabethan playwright really being the best are vanishingly low.</ol> | ||
At the same time, everyone else will conclude that you have no idea about literature and a shaky grasp even of Bayesian statistics. | At the same time, everyone else will conclude that you have no idea about literature and a shaky grasp even of Bayesian statistics. | ||