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Black duck: Difference between revisions
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An event that: | An event that: | ||
:(a) Has an outsized, or non-linear impact on its environment | :(a) Has an outsized, or [[non-linear]] impact on its environment | ||
:(b) Is highly amenable to ''[[ex post facto]]'', wise-after-the-event rationalisations, especially by politicians, regulators and bank executives | :(b) Is highly amenable to ''[[ex post facto]]'', wise-after-the-event rationalisations, especially by politicians, regulators and bank executives | ||
:(c) Lies outside the ''actual'' expectations, | :(c) Lies outside the ''actual'' expectations, however sensible, of those whose job it is — ''was'' — to keep an eye out for things of this nature. | ||
From a bank executive’s perspective, black ducks are like [[black swan]]s — ''exactly'' the same, in fact — only easier for people on [[Twitter]] to be judgmental about. The key, for such a bank executive, is to position yourself so you can be judgmental about them on Twitter, too. That means ''finding someone else to blame''. Bank executives have proven very adept at this over the years. | From a bank executive’s perspective, black ducks are like [[black swan]]s — ''exactly'' the same, in fact — only easier for people on [[Twitter]] to be judgmental about. The key, for such a bank executive, is to position yourself so you can be judgmental about them on Twitter, too. That means ''finding someone else to blame''. Bank executives have proven very adept at this over the years. | ||
So, if it is a black ''swan'', [[Q.E.D.]] it is no-one’s fault, certainly not yours, being impossible to foresee,<ref>Being “impossible to foresee” is quite closely correlated with [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]] not being able to foresee it.</ref> so you get away scot-free, | So, if it is a black ''swan'', [[Q.E.D.]] it is no-one’s fault, certainly not yours, being impossible to foresee,<ref>Being “impossible to foresee” is quite closely correlated with [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]] not being able to foresee it.</ref> so you get away scot-free, you just fire a few [[subject matter expert]]s for the sake of good order and to be seen to be doing something, and the taxpayer foots the bill. | ||
If it is a black ''duck'', you personally should have known better, so your main focus should be quickly | If it is a black ''duck'', you personally should have known better, so your main focus should be quickly finding some [[subject matter experts]] to blame who you can fire for the sake of good order, and the taxpayer foots the bill. | ||
There is a subtle intellectual | There is a subtle intellectual distinction, even though it has no practical influence on the lived experience of (a) taxpayers or (b) [[subject matter expert]]s. | ||
So, with feeling: | So, with feeling: | ||