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Certainty: Difference between revisions
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{{a|psychology| | {{a|psychology| | ||
{{Image|preggie test|jpg|Because even stupid people need pregnancy detector kits. They need them ''more''. }} | |||
}}{{quote|If you are wholly predictable, people learn to hack you. | }}{{quote|If you are wholly predictable, people learn to hack you. | ||
:—{{author|Rory Sutherland}}<ref>{{br|Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas that Don’t Make Sense}}</ref>}} | :—{{author|Rory Sutherland}}<ref>{{br|Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas that Don’t Make Sense}}</ref>}} | ||
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{{quote|If there was certainty, ninety-five percent of you wouldn’t ''have'' any goddamn work. | {{quote|If there was certainty, ninety-five percent of you wouldn’t ''have'' any goddamn work. | ||
:—Also the Jolly Contrarian}} | :—Also the Jolly Contrarian}} | ||
Be careful what you wish for. A world of certainty is a world of no [[doubt]], no mystery, no ''je ne sais pas''; no contingency, no [[disclaimer]]s that [[past performance is no indicator of future results]], not because suddenly the past ''is'' an indicator: everything that is to come can be extrapolated from what has already been. Our accursed [[induction|inductive mode of reasoning]] is obsolete. We can [[deduction|''de''duce the future]] from the data we have to hand, from first principles, the same way that one can deduce rice pudding and income tax from “[[cogito, ergo sum]]”.<ref>{{hhgg}}, [[as any fule kno]].</ref> | Be careful what you wish for. A world of certainty is a world of no [[doubt]], no mystery, no ''je ne sais pas''; no contingency, no [[disclaimer]]s that [[past performance is no indicator of future results]], not because suddenly the past ''is'' an indicator: everything that is to come can be extrapolated from what has already been. Our accursed [[induction|inductive mode of reasoning]] is obsolete. We can [[deduction|''de''duce the future]] from the data we have to hand, from first principles, the same way that one can deduce [[rice pudding and income tax]] from “[[cogito, ergo sum]]”.<ref>{{hhgg}}, [[as any fule kno]].</ref> | ||
A certain universe, then, is a ''determined'' universe, where each stem in the great fractal bloom of evolution; every infinitesimal causal | A certain universe, then, is a ''determined'' universe, where each stem in the great fractal bloom of evolution; every infinitesimal causal chain twisting madly through evolutionary design space, is fully taxonomised, catalogued, worked out and mapped. We can plot where when and how every [[Crisp-packet blowing across St Mark’s square|crisp packet will kick and tumble across St Mark’s square]], as all those that didn’t, but might have tumbled across that palazzo, had the circumstances been different, even through, by immovable presumption of your [[philosophy]], they cannot have been. | ||
We can predict the Madagascan hurricane, the Brazilian butterfly whose flapping wings set it off, and all the myriad intervening causes in between. | We can predict the Madagascan hurricane, the Brazilian butterfly whose flapping wings set it off, and all the myriad intervening causes in between. | ||
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===It’s relative=== | ===It’s relative=== | ||
If only you knew. “Oh, JC, you silly old duffer,” you say and punch me on the arm. “I know certainty is an impossible state — everyone knows see that — but, like a prisoner shackled to a cave seeing shadows on the wall, it is an idea we can ''apprehend'' and aspire to; our advantage is pressed not by finding certainty but getting nearer to it than the competition. Isn't that the definition of a competitive advantage? | If only you knew. “Oh, JC, you silly old duffer,” you say and punch me on the arm. “I know certainty is an impossible state — everyone knows see that — but, like a prisoner shackled to a cave seeing shadows on the wall, it is an idea we can ''apprehend'' and aspire to; our advantage is pressed not by finding certainty but getting nearer to it than the competition. Isn't that the definition of a competitive advantage? | ||
===Bounded rationality=== | |||
Per Gerd Gigerenzer: | |||
*'''Risk ≠ Uncertainty''': the best decision under risk is not the best decisions under uncertainty. Probabilities work for risk situations (where the system is closed and predictable and all potential outcomes are known); heuristics work best for situations of uncertainty (where all facts, outcomes etc are not known). | |||
*'''Simplicity''': complex problems do not necessarily require complex solutions. | |||
*'''The power of heuristics''': [[heuristics]] are indispensable for good decision-making in uncertain situations. They are not a suboptimal solution. | |||
*'''Less is more''': More information, time and computation is not always an advantage. | |||
{{Sa}} | {{Sa}} | ||
*[[Doubt]] | *[[Doubt]] | ||
{{Ref}} | {{Ref}} | ||