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If one can derive significance from a purely statistical correlation, without any deeper mechanical theory of the universe that might tell us ''why'', we are well on our way to an artificially intelligent future where robots can wipe elderly arses, all bankers are redundant, and it is only a matter of time before Skynet becomes self-aware and starts hunting down random skater kids from the 1990s. | If one can derive significance from a purely statistical correlation, without any deeper mechanical theory of the universe that might tell us ''why'', we are well on our way to an artificially intelligent future where robots can wipe elderly arses, all bankers are redundant, and it is only a matter of time before Skynet becomes self-aware and starts hunting down random skater kids from the 1990s. | ||
Well in some cases you can, in some cases you can’t<ref>There are whole websites devoted to spurious correlations. Like, well, http://www.spuriouscorrelations.com.</ref> | Well, in some cases you can, in some cases you can’t,<ref>There are whole websites devoted to spurious correlations. Like, well, http://www.spuriouscorrelations.com.</ref> but — irony upcoming — without a sophisticated theory of ''causality'', it will be hard to tell them apart. That is to say, a bare [[correlation]] won’t tell you whether there is a causal arrow at all much less, if there is one, which way it flows. | ||
“Correlation” is a synonym for ”coincidence”, though in its more fashionable usages among big data freaks this tends to be get somewhat, well, buried. | |||
===[[Correlation]] and [[causation]]=== | ===[[Correlation]] and [[causation]]=== | ||