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{{a|myth|{{image|Ironmountain1|jpg|}}}}{{d|Employment derivatives|/ɪmˈplɔɪmənt dɪˈrɪvətɪvz/|n|}}Financial instruments designed to manage the risk of employment variability. First developed in the early part of this millennium by derivatives pioneer and perennial boiler of pots, {{author|Hunter Barkley}}. | {{a|myth|{{image|Ironmountain1|jpg|}}}}{{d|Employment derivatives|/ɪmˈplɔɪmənt dɪˈrɪvətɪvz/|n|}}Financial instruments designed to manage the risk of employment variability. First developed in the early part of this millennium by derivatives pioneer and perennial boiler of pots, {{author|Hunter Barkley}}. | ||
====Genesis==== | ====Genesis==== | ||
{{Drop|W|hen midway through}} midway through his annual rant about the meaningless of life as viewed through the lens of his income, Hunter Barkley had an epiphany. For sure, his own pay packet was a material, unhedged contingency in his life. The perpetual disappointment that it rained upon his sorry existence had, he knew, little to do with how good he was at it (work, or existence for that matter). He knew, too, that his experience was common to the great dreary sweep of humankind | {{Drop|W|hen midway through}} midway through his annual rant about the meaningless of life as viewed through the lens of his income, Hunter Barkley had an epiphany. For sure, his own pay packet was a material, unhedged contingency in his life. The perpetual disappointment that it rained upon his sorry existence had, he knew, little to do with how good he was at it (work, or existence for that matter). He knew, too, that his experience was common to the great dreary sweep of humankind that crawled blearily across the clanking gears of global industry. | ||
That was not his revelation, but this: just as that great collected horde of mortgaged servants were severally at the whim of wanton Gods, so too, necessarily, were the employers who stood the other side of the trade. Firms were long what what their servants were short. Only at ''far greater scale''. Businesses — particularly ''boring'' businesses — bobbed ineptly at the mercy of hysteria’s fickle tides when they flood the market. | |||
An employer of turgid multitudes — a good-sized bank, for example — was in a constant war to prevent its pedestrian operations personnel from being lured away by exciting but stupid enterprises enraptured by the latest techno-craze. Just the effort to stem the outflow might cost a bank ''billions'' of dollars.<ref>The maths was like so: assume 40,000 people at an average total compensation of about $300,000, with a ratio of discretionary to fixed of between 20% and 50%</ref> As the inflated expectations in the new sector foundered, the bank would find itself spoilt for choice and its wage bill would collapse. | |||
In any case this volatility bore little relation to the bank’s own performance, none at all to its employees’. It was a simple measure of background market euphoria. | In any case this employment cost volatility bore little relation to the bank’s own performance, none at all to its employees’. It was a simple measure of that background market euphoria. Different types of firm were “long” or “short” this babbling hysteria, which he labelled ''π'',<ref>From the Greek παράνοια, (''paranoia''). It was also pleasing that π conveys circularity, running on a hamster wheel and so on, all of which Barkley recognised to be fundamental properties of the employment relationship.</ref> at different points in the hype cycle. | ||
At its onset, | At its onset, “[[Trad fi|trad-fi]]”, “bricks-and-mortar” firms are [[Short|''short'']], and delusional start-ups, [[Long|''long'']] ''π''. Eventually, the lunacy levels off. As reality sets in and employment relations [[Mean reversion|revert to mean]], the ''π'' curve flattens and then eventually inverts. If one could only match off long and a short exposures, Barkley realised, firms on either side of the bid could hedge their exposure to π. | ||
In one of those cruel ironies to whose martial cadence our lives keep time | In one of those cruel ironies to whose martial cadence our lives keep time, Barkley was laid off and, shortly afterwards, imprisoned for manipulating [[LIBOR]], before he could figure out a way of monetising his idea. | ||
==== A chance encounter ==== | |||
==== | |||
{{Drop|B|arkley’s fortunes would}} change following a chance encounter in an upscale cocktail bar in West London. As she neared her [[Schwarzschild radius of alcohol consumption|gin horizon]], HR manager Anita Dochter, was bellyaching to her old pal and erstwhile colleague [[Cass Mälstrom]], about the unstaunchable stream of defections from her firm, a sleepy mid-market broker headquartered in Peterborough. | {{Drop|B|arkley’s fortunes would}} change following a chance encounter in an upscale cocktail bar in West London. As she neared her [[Schwarzschild radius of alcohol consumption|gin horizon]], HR manager Anita Dochter, was bellyaching to her old pal and erstwhile colleague [[Cass Mälstrom]], about the unstaunchable stream of defections from her firm, a sleepy mid-market broker headquartered in Peterborough. | ||
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“But,” complained Dochter, “we actually ''need'' our people. They actually do productive things for us. You know: [[MIS]] reports. Operational [[deep dive]]s. [[Netting]] audits. But unless we pay ''your'' stupid rates for them, which we cannot afford to do —” at this point she fell off her stool briefly — “and give them free fruit, unlimited working from home and a soft play area — they won’t stay with us. But, ''you'',” she hissed, clambering back up and jabbing [[Cass Mälstrom|Mälstrom]] on the lapel, “right now, ''you'' don’t need ''any goddamn'' staff: you just need to show your investors you are clever, imaginative and on point doing fashionably insane things. That does not take actual staff. So stop taking ours.” | “But,” complained Dochter, “we actually ''need'' our people. They actually do productive things for us. You know: [[MIS]] reports. Operational [[deep dive]]s. [[Netting]] audits. But unless we pay ''your'' stupid rates for them, which we cannot afford to do —” at this point she fell off her stool briefly — “and give them free fruit, unlimited working from home and a soft play area — they won’t stay with us. But, ''you'',” she hissed, clambering back up and jabbing [[Cass Mälstrom|Mälstrom]] on the lapel, “right now, ''you'' don’t need ''any goddamn'' staff: you just need to show your investors you are clever, imaginative and on point doing fashionably insane things. That does not take actual staff. So stop taking ours.” | ||
As luck would have it, | As luck would have it Barkley, fresh out of gaol and making ends meet waiting tables, was their host for the evening. Presenting them with the check and some after dinner mints, he cleared his throat. | ||
“Forgive me for imposing, but I could not help overhearing. If you are not actually hiring anyone, why not hedge your employment rate risk to someone who is?” | “Forgive me for imposing, but I could not help overhearing. If you are not actually hiring anyone, why not hedge your employment rate risk to someone who is?” | ||
Dochter fell off her stool again. | Dochter fell off her stool again. | ||
Barkley dropped a slim document on the table. | |||
Mälstrom indicated the booklet. “What’s this?” | Mälstrom indicated the booklet. “What’s this?” | ||
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“[[NDA]]. Call me.” | “[[NDA]]. Call me.” | ||
==== The first employment rate swap ==== | |||
{{Drop|S|o was the}} very first “[[employment rate swap]]” conceived. For an initial period of three years, Wickliffe Hampton would pay its entire operations wage bill, controlled for performance, to lexrifyly. In return, lexrifyly would pay its absurd, grossly inflated but as yet unallocated wage budget for an equivalent sized-team — there was no such team, of course: this was exactly the point — to Wickliffe Hampton.<ref>This was slightly complicated as it was denominated in [[crypto]] and needed to be converted back to Sterling. </ref> | |||
This way, Wickliffe Hampton had the cash required to preemptively bid back restless staff, and lexrifyly could, in time-honoured fashion, guilelessly piddle its investors’ cash up a wall without troubling the operating resiliency of the banking sector, or for that matter, the [[Human resources|HR department]]. | |||
If this seemed like a bad trade for lexrifyly, in actuality it was not. | |||
Firstly, it didn’t care: what was money, when it came to it? Secondly, Barkley’s models demonstrated that the economics could change in any number of circumstances: for example, a market crash, hawkish monetary policy, the dissipation of mass hysteria or incipient tech winter. At that point, widescale redundancies and hiring freezes were sure to follow across the sector, while the boring old banking industry would box on as it always had done. | |||
Ironically, at that point, a startup short ''π'' under an [[Employment rate swap|ERS]] would have sensible amount of cash coming in from its bank counterparty to keep the lights on. | |||
====The | ====The “PIEBOR” submission process==== | ||
{{Drop| | {{Drop|I|t was easy}} enough to quantify a bank’s presumptive wage bill since, once it was controlled for hysteria, it was more or less a fixed rate. But what about the ever-changing hypothetical wage bill of a startup? How to gauge that in real time? And could not a startup not game this very easily, by just pretending its actual preparedness to pay stupid money was lower that it really was? | ||
The market needed an observable, objective measure of “prevailing startup insanity”, which Barkley denoted “''π”''. He had just the means for achieving it. Under the auspices of the British Human Capital Managers’ Association (BHCMA), he arranged for a committee of fashionable startups to meet each afternoon in a WeWork in Shoreditch and over kombucha martinis to state publicly, in front of a live panel of [[venture capitalist]]<nowiki/>s, how much they would be prepared to pay an underperforming settlements and reconciliations clerk to join them and drive customer engagement. They expressed this as a premium of discount to ''π''', being the equivalent value for the preceding day. | |||
The BHCMA would trim the top and bottom estimates, average the remainder and compile and publish the trimmed arithmetic mean rate as the [[London Inter-Employer Basic Offered Rate]] ([[LIEBOR]]). | The BHCMA would trim the top and bottom estimates, average the remainder and compile and publish the trimmed arithmetic mean rate as the [[London Inter-Employer Basic Offered Rate]] ([[LIEBOR|PIEBOR]]). PIEBOR quickly become the ''de facto'' measure of ''π'' and was soon factored into the “floating” leg of [[employment rate swap]]<nowiki/>s as standard. | ||
The banks could even sell these derivatives directly to employees, saving the banks the bother of having to hedge themselves. By the same token employees could hedge away their intrinsic loyalty discount, and restricting their need to find new jobs to genuine changes in role or idiosyncratic hatred of their bosses. But there was no need to simply “benchmark” themselves periodically any more. | The banks could even sell these derivatives directly to employees, saving the banks the bother of having to hedge themselves. By the same token employees could hedge away their intrinsic loyalty discount, and restricting their need to find new jobs to genuine changes in role or idiosyncratic hatred of their bosses. But there was no need to simply “benchmark” themselves periodically any more. |