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Ergodicity: Difference between revisions
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=== Ensemble probabilities and time series probabilities === | === Ensemble probabilities and time series probabilities === | ||
[[File:Ensemble vs time.png|frameless| | [[File:Ensemble vs time.png|frameless|right]]In fact, the group as a whole ''won’t'' make money each round. | ||
Why? Because the ensemble average ''means nothing for any single player''. ''No one'' scores a constant 105% return. Players score ''either'' 150% ''or'' 60% and then invest their winnings in the next round. Their expected payoff through time is therefore not the snapshot ''average'' of the winning payoff and the losing payoff — that is a return the player certainly won’t get — but the ''product'' of the winning payoff ''multiplied by'' the losing payoff (i.e., 90%). | Why? Because the ensemble average ''means nothing for any single player''. ''No one'' scores a constant 105% return. Players score ''either'' 150% ''or'' 60% and then invest their winnings in the next round. Their expected payoff through time is therefore not the snapshot ''average'' of the winning payoff and the losing payoff — that is a return the player certainly won’t get — but the ''product'' of the winning payoff ''multiplied by'' the losing payoff (i.e., 90%). | ||
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=== Salaries === | === Salaries === | ||
[[File:Ensemble vs time 2.png|frameless| | [[File:Ensemble vs time 2.png|frameless|right]]So, therefore if we all pool our resources and lead an anarcho-syndicalist community existence we will all be rich, rich, rich? | ||
No. Put away ''Das Kapital''. | No. Put away ''Das Kapital''. | ||