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Popularised by {{author|Nassim Nicholas Taleb}} in {{br|Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder}}, one can extrapolate [[iatrogenic]]s to many other walks of life, in particular those involving service industries, and it is rather fun to do so. | Popularised by {{author|Nassim Nicholas Taleb}} in {{br|Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder}}, one can extrapolate [[iatrogenic]]s to many other walks of life, in particular those involving service industries, and it is rather fun to do so. | ||
===[[Ergodicity]]=== | |||
Much of this effect derives from the rent-seeker’s fascination of the particular over the aggregate: as an abstract matter, it is better to address ''this'' peripheral risk here, than ignore it: the cost of addressing it now (say an hour of petulant argument) pails when compared with the consequences later should this risk come about. Let’s unitise this: say the expected cost of this catastrophe, should it happen is one thousand times worse than the cost of dealing with it up front, and its probability of ever happening is one in ''two'' thousand. | |||
That those consequences are ''unlikely'' is rather beside the point: it’s only an hour, after all. That is a bearable cost well spent to avoid a small chance of a large loss later. At some level of abstraction it’s not a cost at all: it lives within the ebb and flow of human productivity in a day: we are not automata, we do glance up from our stalls and vainly peruse Expedia for last minute flights to Venice every now and then. What’s the odd hour, in the daily sludge? | |||
This is the individual “[[time-series probability]]”. It is a trip down the spidery, meandering path of ''one mortal [[Meatsack|meat-sack]]''. It is “just an hour” to fix it now against “God knows what” at some point down the line. It is to ask a [[legal eagle]] the question, ''do you feel lucky, punk?'' | |||
Assume [[rent-seeking]] [[legal eagle]], faced with an unchallenging hour earn his own keep, will not feel lucky. He has no interest in feeling lucky. to the contrary: all his personal incentives urge him to feel uncommonly cursed by ill fortune. He will spend that hour up-front every time. It is the prudent thing to do. It is ''insurance''. It will evaporate, unmonitored, into the ether of the daily grind. | |||
But the “[[ensemble probability]]” — the same risk spread across a ''population'' of [[meatsack]]s, plays out quite differently. It scales badly. Say we run this same risk ''two thousand times''. Firstly, it’s harder to blow off ''two thousand hours'' as “part of the ebb and flow of the daily grind”. That’s ''fifty working weeks''. It has its own daily grind —in each working day there’s a degree of googling and running off the the bathroom and so on — so call it more like ''sixty'' working weeks. And our catastrophic outcome: sure, it’s two thousand times more likely to happen, but since it was only a one-in ''two'' thousand shot, it’s still only likely to happen ''once''. And even if it does happen, the loss is only half the cost of preventing it. | |||
===Insurance=== | ===Insurance=== | ||
This is rather like [[insurance]]. For most purposes, [[insurance]] is a waste of money — realistically, you are never going to claim on your extended warranty if your toaster breaks down after 18 months because (a) you can’t find it and (b) ''the damn thing only cost twenty five quid'' — the bother of having to find the stupid warranty, read it — there is ''guaranteed'' to be some exclusion — and actually claim on it is more bother than just shelling out twenty five more quid on a ''new'' toaster — of a different brand: screw you, Morphy Richards — and being done with it. | This is rather like [[insurance]]. For most purposes, [[insurance]] is a waste of money — realistically, you are never going to claim on your extended warranty if your toaster breaks down after 18 months because (a) you can’t find it and (b) ''the damn thing only cost twenty five quid'' — the bother of having to find the stupid warranty, read it — there is ''guaranteed'' to be some exclusion — and actually claim on it is more bother than just shelling out twenty five more quid on a ''new'' toaster — of a different brand: screw you, Morphy Richards — and being done with it. | ||