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So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves. | So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves. | ||
And it is all to do with what happens when apparently harmless [[normal distribution]]s, like those | And it is all to do with what happens when apparently harmless [[normal distribution]]s, like those governing the purchase of lentils, reveal themselves not to be sp normal after all. Suddenly, when you are so many [[standard deviation]]s from the [[mean]] that probability theory tells you the risk is ''as good as zero'', the elegant symmetry of the bell curve goes to hell. We’re talking about [[fat tail]]s. | ||
===Lentils in peacetime=== | ===Lentils in peacetime=== |