Lindy effect: Difference between revisions

</ref> At the time of writing, a permissionless [[blockchain]] is a novel solution to the problem of definitively recording ownership and registering transfer of goods. It is yet to be fully tested in lots of different operating conditions, so we do not as yet know how robust it is. But “a means of recording and registering title to movable assets” is not a new idea — title registries have been around since at least William of Normandy commissioned the Domesday Book, a thousand year ago. We have all manner of ownership registries for shares and financial assets, land, ships, planes, corporations, intellectual property — there will be some kind of title registry for any asset valuable enough to be worth protecting. Just as blockchain is an instance of the abstract form “ownership registry”, an ownership registry is just an instance of the abstract form “database”.

The Lindy effect says when gauging survivorship prospects of competing ideas, all other things being equal consider ''relative longevity''. Absent a technological development that has enabled a new idea which was not possible before, expect the older technology, eventually, to win out, because it is “road-tested” in more battle conditions. If it was going to be found out, it would have been found out by now. So ask: what additional features does a blockchain have, and what disadvantages over a traditional register and how important are they?  

Blockchains are more secure than conventional registers — virtually unhackable — more definitive — what is done cannot be undone — dispense with the need for intermediaries, and operate even in a trustless environment (such as one where you do not trust a registrar). On the other hand they are slow, inflexible, have capacity constraints, and consume enormous amounts of energy.  

Are the advantages the [[blockchain]] offers game-changers? We would say no: at least until the emergence of the internet, the world has lived with the security vulnerabilities of conventional registries — which is why we have them. The flexibility they offer — that an intermediary who acts as registrar offers — is an advantage, not a disadvantage, and trust is also a feature, not a bug, of a commercial environment. Commerce does not work without trust, so a commercial technique that can function even where commerce cannot is not much of a selling point. If you are running a business in Mogadishu, the security of your ownership registries should be the least of your concerns.