Metric: Difference between revisions

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 Before long the dolphins were observed breaking up pieces of litter and claiming multiple fish for one each, and then stockpiling surplus fish, luring seagulls with them, and killing the seagulls!<ref>[https://open.spotify.com/episode/3y799K1qGOhqxPUGcqXwx0 Rationally Speaking podcast episode 240.</ref>
-“we should ” as xxx remarked, “bevgrateful dolphins don't have opposable thumbs.”
+“We should ” as someone on the podcast remarked, “be grateful dolphins don’t have opposable thumbs.”
-One could, and here I am indebted to  [https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/goodharts-law this] excellent resource on [[Goodhart’s law]], break the phenomenon down into four components.
+One could, and here I am indebted to [https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/goodharts-law this] excellent resource on [[Goodhart’s law]], break the phenomenon down into four components.
-*'''Regressive''': using a single metric as a proxy to measure “[[multivariate]]” phenomena that are driven by several factors. Here [[Simpson’s paradox]] is not your friend. Much “[[social justice]]” — which we define as the wishful, if not wilful, tendency to boil complex socioeconomic phenomena down to simplistic moral propositions that even a dull fifth-former could understand, and only a dull fifth-former would fall for — stumbles into this trap.
+====Regressive====
+Using a single metric as a proxy to measure “[[multivariate]]” phenomena that are driven by several factors. Here [[Simpson’s paradox]] is not your friend. Much “[[social justice]]” — which we define as the wishful, if not wilful, tendency to boil complex socioeconomic phenomena down to simplistic moral propositions that even a dull fifth-former could understand, and only a dull fifth-former would fall for — stumbles into this trap.
-*'''Extremal''': Where a given metric is useful ''within a range'' — such a range generally corresponding to “normalcy”: “peacetime”, “normal operating conditions”, “[[business as usual]]” and similar platitudes — but which breaks down, fails, or even reverses itself in extremes or unusual cases beyond that range. Paging Messrs [[Black Scholes option pricing model|Black and Scholes]]. You know, using [[normal distribution]]s of independent events to model dependent events, like human behaviour of the market. These are especially fraught because the 80% of the time these metrics work, and they work fabulously, is exactly the range over which ''it doesn’t matter whether they work or not''. When things ''aren’t'' blowing up. The use case for the metric in the first place, remember, was to warn you about risk events. A “heightened risk” metric that you can only rely on when there isn’t a heightened risk is a ''waste of cheese''.
+====Extremal====
+Where a given metric is useful ''within a range'' — such a range generally corresponding to “normalcy”: “peacetime”, “normal operating conditions”, “[[business as usual]]” and similar platitudes — but which breaks down, fails, or even reverses itself in extremes or unusual cases beyond that range. Paging Messrs [[Black Scholes option pricing model|Black and Scholes]]. You know, using [[normal distribution]]s of independent events to model dependent events, like human behaviour of the market. These are especially fraught because the 80% of the time these metrics work, and they work fabulously, is exactly the range over which ''it doesn’t matter whether they work or not''. When things ''aren’t'' blowing up. The use case for the metric in the first place, remember, was to warn you about risk events. A “heightened risk” metric that you can only rely on when there isn’t a heightened risk is a ''waste of cheese''.
-*'''Causal''': the old [[correlation]] is not the same as [[causation]] chestnut. It may be true that people often buy ice-cream when they are wearing sunglasses, but handing out complimentary sunglasses will not improve ice-cream sales.
+====Causal====
+The old [[correlation]] is not the same as [[causation]] chestnut. It may be true that people often buy ice-cream when they are wearing sunglasses, but handing out complimentary sunglasses will not improve ice-cream sales.
-*'''Adversarial''': Substitute targeting the desired outcome — a senior tranche in a portfolio of mortgages that will not default in any circumstances — with one that is rated AAA. Hello, [[global financial crisis]].
+====Adversarial====
+Substitute targeting the desired outcome — a senior tranche in a portfolio of mortgages that will not default in any circumstances — with one that is rated AAA. Hello, [[global financial crisis]].