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Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies: Difference between revisions
Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies (view source)
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{{Quote|“Large nuclear plants of 1,000 or so megawatts have not been operating very long—only about thirty-five to forty years of operating experience exists, and that constitutes “industrial infancy” for complicated, poorly understood transformation systems.”}} | {{Quote|“Large nuclear plants of 1,000 or so megawatts have not been operating very long—only about thirty-five to forty years of operating experience exists, and that constitutes “industrial infancy” for complicated, poorly understood transformation systems.”}} | ||
The unnerving practical conclusion that Perrow draws is that, for all the easy speeches<ref name="syed">[https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8a262f8-4490-11ec-b414-b1f6389ab345 We are too emotional about risk — no wonder we make bad decisions]— Matthew Syed, ''The Sunday Times'', 14 November 2021.</ref> given about the relative low risk of nuclear power compared with traditional fossil fuel-based energy generation, it is just far too early to draw | The unnerving practical conclusion that Perrow draws is that, for all the easy speeches<ref name="syed">[https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8a262f8-4490-11ec-b414-b1f6389ab345 We are too emotional about risk — no wonder we make bad decisions]— Matthew Syed, ''The Sunday Times'', 14 November 2021.</ref> given about the relative low risk of nuclear power compared with traditional fossil fuel-based energy generation, it is just far too early to draw meaningful conclusions about the tail risk of nuclear meltdown. It is like rolling a die six times, and concluding that, because a six has not yet come up, one is not possible. | ||
The potential for unanticipatable accidents that trigger unstoppable catastrophic chain reactions is incalculable, and the time horizon over which these accidents could occur or have effect is literally millennial. Which traditional industries these risks are better understood and generally less prevalent. | |||
To claim that the statistics we have suggest nuclear power is is safe<ref name="syed"/> is to mistake an “absence of evidence” for “evidence of absence”. | To claim that the statistics we have suggest nuclear power is is safe<ref name="syed"/> is to mistake an “absence of evidence” for “evidence of absence”. | ||