Normal distribution: Difference between revisions

Normal distribution (view source)

700 bytes added , 22 August 2021

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 The probability of a 25 standard deviation move is 1.309 x 10 ^ 130. You see this figure cited frequently, but to a lay person, it doesn't really make the same impact as writing it out, so let's to that.
-{{Quote|1 in 1.3 billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion.
+{{Quote|1 in 1.3 billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion.}}
+By comparison, the earth is 1658 billion days old, and the universe itself ten times older than that. So we are talking about an event that you would only expect once in several billion billion billion billion billion lives of the universe, happening ''several days in a row''.
+Enough already of the chutzpah.<ref>But, [[get your coat]], you know?</ref> the practical lesson is that, unless it's a normal distribution, ''99 per cent of the way there isn’t good enough''. ''All'' existential crises sit in the last 1 per cent, because the feature of an existential crisis is everyone panicking and selling at once. These are, by definition, the events a normal distribution says will not happen.
 {{sa}}
 *[[Social proof]]: the figures implied that it would take a so-called ten-sigma event—that is, a statistical freak occurring —for the firm to lose all of its capital within one year.