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But when [[Mrs. Pinterman]] then cries, “fire” the situational dynamic is very different: ''everyone'' tries to leave at once. Even those who didn’t hear Mrs. Pinterman directly, because they instinctively copy everyone else, who did. | But when [[Mrs. Pinterman]] then cries, “fire” the situational dynamic is very different: ''everyone'' tries to leave at once. Even those who didn’t hear Mrs. Pinterman directly, because they instinctively copy everyone else, who did. | ||
When assessing probabilities, therefore, pay attention to the dependency of the events. If two events can influence each other — you bought a stock, it went up in price, so I bought it too, kind of thing — ''[[normal]] | When assessing probabilities, therefore, pay attention to the dependency of the events. If two events can influence each other — you bought a stock, it went up in price, so I bought it too, kind of thing — ''[[normal distribution]]s do not apply. | ||
This seems an obvious lesson; the JC feels less patronising about stating it since failure to heed it led to the collapse of [[LTCM]] ''and'' the [[global financial crisis]]. This from someone who really should have known better: | This seems an obvious lesson; the JC feels less patronising about stating it since failure to heed it led to the collapse of [[LTCM]] ''and'' the [[global financial crisis]]. This from someone who really should have known better: | ||