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{{Quote|“We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.” | {{Quote|“We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.” | ||
:—David Viniar}} | :—David Viniar, Chief Financial Officer, [[Goldman]]}} | ||
The probability of a 25 standard deviation move is 1.309 x 10 ^ 130. You see this figure cited frequently, but to a lay person, it doesn't really make the same impact as writing it out, so let's to that. | |||
{{Quote|1 in 1.3 billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion. | |||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
*[[Social proof]]: the figures implied that it would take a so-called ten-sigma event—that is, a statistical freak occurring —for the firm to lose all of its capital within one year. | *[[Social proof]]: the figures implied that it would take a so-called ten-sigma event—that is, a statistical freak occurring —for the firm to lose all of its capital within one year. | ||