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}}{{d|Path-dependent|/pɑːθ-dɪˈpɛndənt/|adj|}}{{c|newsletter draft}} | }}{{d|Path-dependent|/pɑːθ-dɪˈpɛndənt/|adj|}}{{c|newsletter draft}} | ||
Of a circumstance, that its coming about can only be explained by the sequence of events and contributing factors that lead to it; that it cannot be justified or explained by reference only to existing conditions. | Of a circumstance, that its coming about can only be explained by the sequence of events and contributing factors that lead to it; that it cannot be justified or explained by reference only to existing conditions. | ||
The | The QWERTY keyboard. [[Twitter]]. | ||
The classic case is of course evolution by natural selection: re run the tape from the beginning and you would ''not'' get the same result. | The way things turned out — how we got to this pretty pass — depended on the coincidental interaction and juxtaposition of unrelated factors in the ecosystem. | ||
The classic case is of course evolution by natural selection: re-run the tape from the beginning and you would ''not'' get the same result. | |||
This is the difference between [[linearity]] and [[complexity]]. A linear reaction, you can predict. Components are independent: they do not depend on or react to each other. Given the same inputs, the output will be the same. Hence the scientific predictability of ''force = mass v acceleration''. A complex one you cannot: different components of complex systems interact with each other in non-linear ways. Each component behaves differently — is influenced — by the behaviour of the other components. The landscape “dances”. The same fact pattern can create entirely different outcomes. Hence the usual routine can unexpectedly go haywire. | |||
Unexpectedly non-linearity propels for much popular fiction: write a story outline from the following prompt: “Farm labourer acquires some second-hand machinery for use on his uncle’s farm. It malfunctions”. Where did you get to? Forty five years ago, a guy tried that, got to “Kid saves galaxy?” and has made, at last count, $51 billion dollars out of it: a kind of meta non-linearity in itself. | |||
===Backtesting, how how “hindsight is a wonderful thing”=== | ===Backtesting, how how “hindsight is a wonderful thing”=== | ||