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Of a circumstance, that its coming about can only be explained by the sequence of events and contributing factors that lead to it; that it cannot be justified or explained by reference only to existing conditions. | Of a circumstance, that its coming about can only be explained by the sequence of events and contributing factors that lead to it; that it cannot be justified or explained by reference only to existing conditions. | ||
The | The classic case is, of course, evolution by natural selection: re-run the tape from the beginning and you would ''not'' get the same result. | ||
This is the difference between [[linearity]] and [[complexity]]. A linear reaction, you can predict. Components are independent: they do not depend on or react to each other. Given the same inputs, the output will be the same. Hence the scientific predictability of ''force = mass v acceleration''. A complex one you cannot: different components of complex systems interact with each other in non-linear ways. Each component behaves differently — is influenced — by the behaviour of the other components. The landscape “dances”. The same fact pattern can create entirely different outcomes. Hence the usual routine can unexpectedly go haywire. | |||
Unexpectedly non-linearity propels for much popular fiction: write a story outline from the following prompt: “Farm labourer acquires some second-hand machinery for use on his uncle’s farm. It malfunctions”. Where did you get to? Forty five years ago, a guy tried that, got to “Kid saves galaxy?” and has made, at last count, $51 billion dollars out of it: a kind of meta non-linearity in itself. | |||
For most things in our [[Complexity|complex]] world, the way things turned out — how we got to this pretty pass — depended on the coincidental interaction and juxtaposition of unrelated factors in the ecosystem. We may not like the QWERTY keyboard, or [[Get off Twitter|Twitter]], but we are stuck with it. | |||
Removing it is not a simple appeal to dispassionate logic, or the prevailing cultural mores, but requires more path-dependence. The longer it has been around, generally, the more deeply will it be embedded in the cultural, political or even biological layers of humanity, and the more concerted, insistent and patient will be the effort to change it need to be. | |||
Path dependency can be misused in at least two different ways: by extrapolating the future by reference to the past, and by attempting to change the past in an attempt to reconfigure the present. Neither will work. | |||
=== | ===Extrapolating from the past: backtesting=== | ||
[[Backtesting]] is a naked way of trying to solve for the ''future'' by extrapolating from the past. | [[Backtesting]] is a naked way of trying to solve for the ''future'' by extrapolating from the past. | ||
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But note the mode of discovery: static; historical; final; determinate. Data can tell you how things ''were''. | But note the mode of discovery: static; historical; final; determinate. Data can tell you how things ''were''. | ||
===Re-framing the past=== | |||
===Causal [[determinism]]=== | ===Causal [[determinism]]=== | ||
We accept “causal [[determinism|regularity]]” — that science yields truth: that one thing regularly leads to another — because the alternative seems to deny the apparent operation of the universe. | We accept “causal [[determinism|regularity]]” — that science yields truth: that one thing regularly leads to another — because the alternative seems to deny the apparent operation of the universe. | ||
But even here the fossil record flatters to deceive: the lattice of potential causes is far more complex than our wildest dreams — we form those just from what we see and hear — but that is an infinitesimal sliver of all possible events out there. Our histories are works of imaginative fiction. This is why historians do not agree. We make our histories; we do not ''find'' them. | But even here, the fossil record flatters to deceive: the lattice of potential causes is far more [[Complexity|complex]] than our wildest dreams — we form those just from what we see and hear — but that is an infinitesimal sliver of all possible events out there. Our histories are works of imaginative fiction. This is why historians do not agree. We make our histories; we do not ''find'' them. | ||
By looking at a unitary history (that we made up), in hindsight we miss the contingency from which it was fashioned. Once it is laid down, it looks inevitable. It looks pre-ordained. This is a curiously ''religious'' idea. | By looking at a unitary history (that we made up), in hindsight we miss the contingency from which it was fashioned. Once it is laid down, it looks inevitable. It looks pre-ordained. This is a curiously ''religious'' idea. | ||
But though there is but one past — whether or not we can know what it is — still there remains, from any given present, an ''infinity'' of futures. | |||
The temptation, when we look at such a concrete past, is to see each of the points behind us on that timeline as having determined the remaining history to the present. The extrapolation is that they must determine the future, too. The further back in time a point is, the more momentous it has been in determining our path to here. This seems intuitive: the decisions I made ''yesterday'' had little bearing on where I am today: I was already here. The die was long since cast. | The temptation, when we look at such a concrete past, is to see each of the points behind us on that timeline as having determined the remaining history to the present. The extrapolation is that they must determine the future, too. The further back in time a point is, the more momentous it has been in determining our path to here. This seems intuitive: the decisions I made ''yesterday'' had little bearing on where I am today: I was already here. The die was long since cast. | ||
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But this is not true. | But this is not true. | ||
Since that moment thirty-years ago, when you bought that plane ticket to America, you have had thousands of opportunities to | Since that moment thirty-years ago, when you bought that plane ticket to America, you have had thousands of opportunities to buy a plane ticket home again. That you are still in America is nothing to do with that ticket, and everything to do with the tickets home you haven’t bought since. | ||
We have, and our ancestors had, the ongoing ability to change things daily. ''Everyone'' makes bad decisions. The key is not to be ''defined'' by them. Everyone makes ''good'' decisions, too. Keep the good decisions, do what you can to correct for the bad ones. | We have, and our ancestors had, the ongoing ability to change things daily. ''Everyone'' makes bad decisions. The key is not to be ''defined'' by them. Everyone makes ''good'' decisions, too. Keep the good decisions, do what you can to subsequently correct for the bad ones. | ||
Our permanent aspiration: from here, make more ''good'' decisions than you do bad ones. Improve your ratio. You will not always know at the time. You will learn in hindsight. ''Iterate''. | Our permanent aspiration: from here, make more ''good'' decisions than you do bad ones. Improve your ratio. You will not always know at the time. You will learn in hindsight. ''Iterate''. | ||