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Prisoner’s dilemma: Difference between revisions
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{{a| | {{a|bi|{{prisonersdilemmatable}}}}The [[prisoner’s dilemma]] is the mathematician’s way of articulating the [[commercial imperative]]. | ||
An exercise in calculating economic outcomes by means of {{tag|metaphor}}, the [[prisoner’s dilemma]] was developed at the RAND corporation in the 1950s by those splendid brainboxes as a way of predicting individuals’ behaviour in situations requiring [[I believe|trust]] among strangers - for very good example, when unacquainted participants buy or sell in an unregulated market. This field developed into [[game theory]]. | An exercise in calculating economic outcomes by means of {{tag|metaphor}}, the [[prisoner’s dilemma]] was developed at the RAND corporation in the 1950s by those splendid brainboxes as a way of predicting individuals’ behaviour in situations requiring [[I believe|trust]] among strangers - for very good example, when unacquainted participants buy or sell in an unregulated market. This field developed into [[game theory]]. | ||
==The original prisoner’s dilemma== | |||
Two people are charged with a conspiracy<ref>Whether or not they are guilty is beside the point. If it helps you empathise with their predicament, assume they’re innocent</ref>. Each is held separately. They cannot communicate. There is enough evidence to convict both on a lesser charge, but not the main charge. Each prisoner is separately offered the same plea bargain. The offer is: | Two people are charged with a conspiracy<ref>Whether or not they are guilty is beside the point. If it helps you empathise with their predicament, assume they’re innocent</ref>. Each is held separately. They cannot communicate. There is enough evidence to convict both on a lesser charge, but not the main charge. Each prisoner is separately offered the same plea bargain. The offer is: | ||
*If A informs B but B refuses to inform on A: | |||
**A will not be prosecuted at all and will go free | **A will not be prosecuted at all and will go free | ||
**B will be convicted of the main charge and will get '''3''' years in prison. | **B will be convicted of the main charge and will get '''3''' years in prison. | ||
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Now, as well as the short-term payoff, there is a longer-term payoff, and it ''dwarfs'' the short term payoff. If I defect once, I earn £150. If I cooperate a thousand times, I earn £50,000. If I defect first time round, sure: I am £100 up, but at what cost: if my counterparty refuses to play with me again — and if she tells other players in the market — I will struggle to make much money. ''No one will trust me''. | Now, as well as the short-term payoff, there is a longer-term payoff, and it ''dwarfs'' the short term payoff. If I defect once, I earn £150. If I cooperate a thousand times, I earn £50,000. If I defect first time round, sure: I am £100 up, but at what cost: if my counterparty refuses to play with me again — and if she tells other players in the market — I will struggle to make much money. ''No one will trust me''. | ||
===''One prisoner, or ''two''?=== | |||
In our view, one correctly places the apostrophe to designate a ''single'' prisoner having the dilemma — so [[prisoner’s dilemma]], not ''prisoners’'' dilemma — because both prisoners if taken together ''have'' no dilemma: it is only where they are acting individually that they have a problem ... ''with each other''. | |||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
*The [[tragedy of the commons]] | |||
*[[Agency problem]] | *[[Agency problem]] | ||
*[[I believe]] | *[[I believe]] | ||
{{ref}} | {{ref}} | ||
{{draft}} | {{draft}} | ||