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{{Author|Ray Kurzweil}} will tell you we are at an inflection point where our technology is so good, and developing so quickly, it is about to become self-aware. Not only that, the ''universe itself'' is about to wake up and become self aware.<ref>See {{br|The Singularity is Near}}. Now there is [https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-900-is-the-universe-conscious-it-seems-impossible-until-you-do-the-maths/ a view that the universe is ''already'' self aware], only it operates at level of abstraction so far above our own mortal plane that we can’t see it — we are to its consciousness as our brain’s individual neurons are to ''our'' consciousness — and this idea has force (even if it ios a shade unfalsifiable). But that is not what Kurzweil is saying.</ref> Now that particular cup of Kool-Aid hasn’t made it to the [[JC]] yet — it seems to be going the other way around the circle as a matter of fact — so let him hold forth on what ''he'' knows, and that is this: the startling developments in technology in the last forty years hail from three interconnected places: | {{Author|Ray Kurzweil}} will tell you we are at an inflection point where our technology is so good, and developing so quickly, it is about to become self-aware. Not only that, the ''universe itself'' is about to wake up and become self aware.<ref>See {{br|The Singularity is Near}}. Now there is [https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-900-is-the-universe-conscious-it-seems-impossible-until-you-do-the-maths/ a view that the universe is ''already'' self aware], only it operates at level of abstraction so far above our own mortal plane that we can’t see it — we are to its consciousness as our brain’s individual neurons are to ''our'' consciousness — and this idea has force (even if it ios a shade unfalsifiable). But that is not what Kurzweil is saying.</ref> Now that particular cup of Kool-Aid hasn’t made it to the [[JC]] yet — it seems to be going the other way around the circle as a matter of fact — so let him hold forth on what ''he'' knows, and that is this: the startling developments in technology in the last forty years hail from three interconnected places: | ||
*'''The [[analog/digital transformation]]''': The discovery that information can be abstracted from the [[substrate]] in which it is usually embedded, so that data can be transferred from place to place ''without'' being buried in an analog medium of some kind. A letter, as an informational construct, can exist without ink, paper or an envelope. | *'''The [[analog/digital transformation]]''': The discovery that information can be abstracted from the [[substrate]] in which it is usually embedded, so that data can be transferred from place to place ''without'' being buried in an analog medium of some kind. A letter, as an informational construct, can exist without ink, paper or an envelope. | ||
*'''Moore’s law''': Now we have liberated data from its substrate, we need the kit to process it. This finally came good when the [[vacuum tube]] — still a | *'''Moore’s law''': Now we have liberated data from its substrate, we need the kit to process it. This finally came good when the [[vacuum tube]] — still a thing of great beauty, especially when over-driven with the signal from a [[stratocaster]] in a Fender amplifier — gave way to the transistor. Transistors suddenly got smaller, and cheaper.<ref>They didn't distort harmonically, which meant they made for lousy guitar amplifiers however.</ref> The smaller and cheaper they got, the more you could pack on a chip, and the faster they got. Moore’s law documents the exponential increase in processing power through that decrease in size and cost of processors themselves.<ref>Though it may now, after 60 years, be approaching its logical limit.</ref> The information in a letter can be automatically, quickly and cheaply copied, augmented, processed, changed. This is revolutionary, has burnished the careers of many a [[legal eagle]], and ensured our world is bedecked, from the farthest reaches of the alluvial fans to the highest peaks, with [[flannel]]. | ||
*'''The network effect''': The exponential increase in our own digital inter-connectivity across the globe. The | *'''The network effect''': The exponential increase in our own digital inter-connectivity across the globe. The abstracted [[flannel]]<ref>did I say [[flannel]]? I mean [[data]].</ref> in your average business communication can thus be (i) extracted from the earthly shackles of its [[substrate]] (ii) decomposed into addressed packets of data; (iii) routed across a network and (iv) reassembled at the destination address and (v) injected (if need be) back into a [[substrate]] (e.g., printed). | ||
Any one of these developments is powerful, but when the three work together the results are revolutionary. The [[analog/digital transformation]] commenced as long ago as the [[Jacquard loom]] in 1804. Moore’s law has been a thing since before Gordon Moore first noticed it in 1965. The internet — a global network of interconnected computers, used mainly by the military industrial complex<ref>See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet Wikipedia] for more.</ref> — became a public thing when Sir Tim Berners-Lee invented the world wide web in 1989. | Any one of these developments is powerful, but when the three work together the results are revolutionary. The [[analog/digital transformation]] commenced as long ago as the [[Jacquard loom]] in 1804. Moore’s law has been a thing since before Gordon Moore first noticed it in 1965. The internet — a global network of interconnected computers, used mainly by the military industrial complex<ref>See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet Wikipedia] for more.</ref> — became a public thing when Sir [[Tim Berners-Lee]] invented the world wide web in 1989. Suddenly, we were cooking with gas. | ||
But note: all of these things are ''hardware'' developments. They make software possible and worthwhile, but this is all about the kit. Self-awareness, and intelligence, you would think, is all about the ''software''. The thing about the kit is that it is there. It is cheap. It is fungible. These three effects are costed in — they come with ''any'' software solution free of charge. | But note: all of these things are ''hardware'' developments. They make software ''possible'' and ''worthwhile'', but this is all about the kit. Self-awareness, and intelligence, you would think, is all about the ''software''. The thing about the kit is that it is ''there''. It is ''cheap''. It is [[fungible]]. These three effects are costed in — they come with ''any'' software solution free of charge. | ||
And as for software: | And as for software: it is, we are told, about [[Software is eating the world|to eat the world]]. All the world is a coder. You can find cheap coders in rented rooms in Bratislava, Bogota and Bangalore. Coders are mainly [[fungible]] too. So if one guy can do it over a weekend, so can ten thousand others. | ||
===What makes a killer app=== | ===What makes a killer app=== | ||