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Simulation hypothesis: Difference between revisions
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{{a|cosmology|}}{{Quote|''A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: | {{a|cosmology|}}{{Quote|''A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: | ||
:(1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; | :''(1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; | ||
:(2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; | :''(2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; | ||
:(3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one. | :''(3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one. | ||
If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3). | ''If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).'' | ||
:—Nick Bostrom, ''Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?'' (2003)<ref>https://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html</ref>}} | :—Nick Bostrom, ''Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?'' (2003)<ref>https://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html</ref>}} | ||