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Template:M intro philosophy doubt: Difference between revisions
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That make ingrateful man! <br> | That make ingrateful man! <br> | ||
:—''King Lear'', III, ii}} | :—''King Lear'', III, ii}} | ||
{{drop|F|rom our first}} law lectures, we imbibed the fundamental interests and objectives of a liberal modern legal system, prominent among them being a profound wish for ''[[certainty]]''. This is a matter of basic [[jurisprudence]]: we hear it, we think, “oh, yes; well, of course,” and nod along as our professor continues on {{sex|her}} mellifluous way. | |||
Thereafter, we are taught with every breath to ''strive'' for [[certainty]]: to plunge as deep into the detail as we can before our lungs burst; to explore it, to unpack it, to revel in its [[granularity]], to the exclusion of any other consideration. There are stained-glass elegies to it in our temples and institutions. It is in the weave of the priestly garments. We have carried its spirit like a holy candle, through our education and into professional practice. | Thereafter, we are taught with every breath to ''strive'' for [[certainty]]: to plunge as deep into the detail as we can before our lungs burst; to explore it, to unpack it, to revel in its [[granularity]], to the exclusion of any other consideration. There are stained-glass elegies to it in our temples and institutions. It is in the weave of the priestly garments. We have carried its spirit like a holy candle, through our education and into professional practice. | ||
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====The commercial imperative of doubt==== | ====The commercial imperative of doubt==== | ||
{{drop|A|t the heart}} of commerce is ''[[trust]]'' and ''[[credit]]'': the expectation that one will ''[[be a good egg]]''. This is the ravishing beauty of [[laissez-faire]]: almost alone among polities, it gets the alignment of [[Conflict of interest|interests]] right. It need not hope that actors are saints, or even that they will act out of public-spiritedness; indeed, it presumes they will not. The operating assumption of a market system is, “everyone for oneself.” ''There are no [[ally|allies]]''. | |||
Yet, through the magic of the [[iterated prisoner’s dilemma]], we are nonetheless incentivised to ''do the right thing'': the long-term payoff of repeated co-operation grossly outweighs the short-term bump of a single defection. We build not transactions, but ''relationships''. Not ''goals of reward'', but ''systems of trust''. As they develop, relationships grow: the dinks and scuffs we sustain along the way toughen up: if we manage them well, our relationships grow stronger. Relationships are, in this way, [[anti-fragile]]. We gain from being vulnerable. We have to put ourselves at risk to earn a greater reward. | Yet, through the magic of the [[iterated prisoner’s dilemma]], we are nonetheless incentivised to ''do the right thing'': the long-term payoff of repeated co-operation grossly outweighs the short-term bump of a single defection. We build not transactions, but ''relationships''. Not ''goals of reward'', but ''systems of trust''. As they develop, relationships grow: the dinks and scuffs we sustain along the way toughen up: if we manage them well, our relationships grow stronger. Relationships are, in this way, [[anti-fragile]]. We gain from being vulnerable. We have to put ourselves at risk to earn a greater reward. | ||
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====The complexity-appropriateness of doubt==== | ====The complexity-appropriateness of doubt==== | ||
{{drop|C|ertainty is appropriate}} to a [[simple]] system. It is the stuff of [[algorithm]]; of formal logic, of if-''this''-then-''that'' statements; of an equation to be solved. Where you are ''certain'' you can deploy [[playbook]]s and [[runbook]]s, your machines run on autopilot, your people are scarce and your contract is little more than a [[service level agreement|schedule of works]]. | |||
As the information revolution unfolds, this is a twilight world. Margins diminish. As dusk falls we scramble around, collecting ever fewer pennies in front of the onward progress of the same, monstrous, [[Entropy|entropic]] steam-roller. The better, and more widely dispersed our technology becomes, the less return there is to make. There is no assured annuity from computerisation. Just ask Eastman Kodak, Sears or the people who made aerogrammes. Ask the Parisienne artisan weavers put out of work by Joseph Jacquard’s new, [[Jacquard loom|automated looms]]. They may not have thrown their clogs into the machines as urban myth suggests, but yet they could not fight history. | As the information revolution unfolds, this is a twilight world. Margins diminish. As dusk falls we scramble around, collecting ever fewer pennies in front of the onward progress of the same, monstrous, [[Entropy|entropic]] steam-roller. The better, and more widely dispersed our technology becomes, the less return there is to make. There is no assured annuity from computerisation. Just ask Eastman Kodak, Sears or the people who made aerogrammes. Ask the Parisienne artisan weavers put out of work by Joseph Jacquard’s new, [[Jacquard loom|automated looms]]. They may not have thrown their clogs into the machines as urban myth suggests, but yet they could not fight history. | ||
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In a [[complex system]], [[algorithm]]s do not reliably work. They get in the way. You need ''experienced experts'' who can make educated guesses and provisional decisions based on incomplete information. You need people who are flexible, adaptable, and smart. ''You need people who are good at handling doubt''. Doubt is not a regrettable externality: it is the ''essence'' of the value proposition. ''Doubt is risk''. Without doubt, there is no reward. We should not seek to avoid, much less eliminate doubt. We should ''seek it out''. The person who succeeds in commerce is the one who is best able to handle ''doubt''. | In a [[complex system]], [[algorithm]]s do not reliably work. They get in the way. You need ''experienced experts'' who can make educated guesses and provisional decisions based on incomplete information. You need people who are flexible, adaptable, and smart. ''You need people who are good at handling doubt''. Doubt is not a regrettable externality: it is the ''essence'' of the value proposition. ''Doubt is risk''. Without doubt, there is no reward. We should not seek to avoid, much less eliminate doubt. We should ''seek it out''. The person who succeeds in commerce is the one who is best able to handle ''doubt''. | ||
===Doubt as a self-enforcing moderator of extreme behaviour=== | ====Doubt as a self-enforcing moderator of extreme behaviour==== | ||
{{drop|E|xamples of “[[risk compensation]]”}}, where the introduction of safety measures — which we may characterise as “enhancements to the ''certainty'' of safety” — lead to ''increased'' risk-taking, are legion.<ref>Anti-lock breaks, seatbelts, speed limits, cycle helmets, ski helmets, skydiving safety equipment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation.</ref> Where town planners have removed all traffic controls, signage and control, a dramatic ''reduction'' in accidents, speed and yet an increase in system flow, has followed.<ref>An [https://web.archive.org/web/20150924012452/http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Evaluation%20Laweiplein.pdf evaluation] of the ''Laweiplein'' scheme in Drachten, Netherlands, which replaced a set of traffic lights with an open square with a roundabout and pedestrian crossings, found that traffic now flows more freely at a constant rate and with reduced congestion, shorter delays and improved capacity.</ref> | |||
Doubt counsels caution. It recommends contingency. It declares knowledge provisional. It is open-minded, non-judgmental, it is the preparedness to admit error. In our polarised times, it is doubt, not certainty, that is lacking. It is not the wilful ''suspicion'' of truth, but a dogmatic conviction in it, that fractures the peace. | Doubt counsels caution. It recommends contingency. It declares knowledge provisional. It is open-minded, non-judgmental, it is the preparedness to admit error. In our polarised times, it is doubt, not certainty, that is lacking. It is not the wilful ''suspicion'' of truth, but a dogmatic conviction in it, that fractures the peace. | ||
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====Epistemology of certainty==== | ====Epistemology of certainty==== | ||
{{drop|A|nd so we}} get down to philosophical nuts and bolts. Truth, free will, knowledge. May we take [[Descartes]] as read? The philosophy gets more interesting a little later on. Let me tell you my dirty little secret, folks: ''I’m a relativist''. | |||
If we take it that “[[truth]] is a property of a sentence, not of the world”<ref>Richard Rorty: {{br|Contingency, Irony, and Solidarity}}.</ref> and ''a sentence is an artefact of a language'', then, for there to be no doubt between us, our language would have to be a ''closed logical system'', in which both of us were fully conversant. Not only are natural languages ''nothing like'' closed logical systems ''in practice'' — they are loose, littered with ambiguities, [[metaphor]], slang, malapropism and error: it is hard to draw boundaries around them — but they ''cannot'' be closed logical systems ''even in theory''. | If we take it that “[[truth]] is a property of a sentence, not of the world”<ref>Richard Rorty: {{br|Contingency, Irony, and Solidarity}}.</ref> and ''a sentence is an artefact of a language'', then, for there to be no doubt between us, our language would have to be a ''closed logical system'', in which both of us were fully conversant. Not only are natural languages ''nothing like'' closed logical systems ''in practice'' — they are loose, littered with ambiguities, [[metaphor]], slang, malapropism and error: it is hard to draw boundaries around them — but they ''cannot'' be closed logical systems ''even in theory''. | ||