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 '''{{helvetica|Work life}}''': An unwanted outcome you didn’t expect, to which you weren’t paying attention, and, therefore, for which you don’t think you should be blamed.
 ====The randomly distributed marketplace====
-{{Drop|A|market, in the}} abstract, looks like a [[nomological machine]]. There is a bounded environment, a finite trading day, a limited number of market participants and a defined set of financial instruments with which one can engage in a limited range of transactions, whose outcomes will set the price for the traded instrument, which can be easily compared with the last traded price for that instrument (in that it will be higher, lower, or the same).
+{{Drop|A|market, in the}} abstract, looks like what [[Nancy Cartwright]] calls a “[[nomological machine]]”. A simplified ''model'' of the real world having defined boundaries and simplified operating conditions: a finite trading day, a limited number of market participants and a defined set of [[fungible]] financial instruments with which one participants engage in a limited range of transactions, whose outcomes deterministically set observable prices for that set of traded instruments, bearing  numerical relationships with previous traded prices for the same instrument (in that they will be higher, lower, or the same).
-From this information we can ''derive'' a relationship between transactions — price went up, price stayed the same, price went down — and a ''trend''. A trend is a stab at extracting a [[signal]] from the [[noise]].
+The world these instruments represent is intractable. It does not have boundaries, even similar “instruments” are not fungible, the range of possible events that can occur to them in undefined.
+{{Quote|“A portfolio of [[asset-backed securities]] cannot,” a commodities trader would say, “suffer water damage. They do not rust.”}}
+Not having to deal with rust, water damage, and manufacturing defect simplifies the business of investing. The ''effects'' of these events are supposed to play out in the information layer , and translate efficiently into the prices at which related instruments trade. If an oil company’s tanker is wrecked, it's share price declines.
+It is tempting to infer information from price: to put a drop in the market to “unexpectedly soft non-farm payroll data”. Many people make a living reading tea-leaves in this way.
+From this price information we can ''derive'' a relationship between transactions — price went up, price stayed the same, price went down — and a ''trend''. A trend is a stab at extracting a [[signal]] from the [[noise]].
 The [[signal]] depends on a theory of the game,  Otherwise the “relationship” between the two discrete transactions is arbitrary. Without a theory, everything is [[noise]].