Template:M intro technology rumours of our demise: Difference between revisions

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=== Yes, bank staff are rubbish===
=== Yes, bank staff are rubbish===
Now, to lionise the human spirit ''in the abstract'', as we do, is not to say we should sanctify bank employees as a class ''in the particular''. The JC has spent a quarter century among them. They — we — may be unusually paid, for all the difference we make to the median life on planet Earth, but we are not unusually gifted or intelligent.  
Now, to lionise the human spirit ''in the abstract'', as we do, is not to say we should sanctify bank employees as a class ''in the particular''. The JC has spent a quarter century among them. They — ''we'' — may be unusually well-paid, for all the difference we make to the median life on planet Earth, but we are not unusually gifted or intelligent.  Come on, guys: — [[backtesting]]. [[Debt value adjustments]]. [[ David Viniar|“Six sigma” events several days in a row]]. [[Madoff]].


It is an ongoing marvel how commercial organisations can be so reliably profitable given the calibre of the hordes they employ to steer them. We have argued [[mediocrity drift|elsewhere]] that informal systems tend to be configured to ''ensure'' staff mediocrity over time. Others have too.<ref>See {{br|The Peter Principle}}; {{br|Parkinson’s Law}}: for classic studies.</ref>
It is an ongoing marvel how commercial organisations can be so reliably profitable given the median calibre of those they employ to steer themselves. Sure, our levels of formal accreditation may be unprecedented, but levels of “[[metis]]” — which can't be had from the academy — have stayed where they are. Market and organisational [[system]]s tend to be configured to ''[[mediocrity drift|ensure]]'' reversion to mediocrity over time.<ref>See {{br|The Peter Principle}}; {{br|Parkinson’s Law}}: for classic studies.</ref>


There is some irony here. As western economies have shifted, from the production of ''things'' to the delivery of ''services'', the proportion of their workforce in “white collar work” has exploded. All kinds of occupations that scarcely existed a generation ago have weaponised themselves into self-declared professions. The ratio of jobs requiring, ''de facto'', university degrees (the modern lite professional qualification) has grown. The number of universities have expanded; polytechnics rebadging themselves. This, too, feels like a [[system effect]] of the modernist orthodoxy: if we can only assess people by reference to formal criteria, then industries devoted to contriving and dishing out those criteria are sure to emerge. The self-interests of different constituencies in the system contrive to entrench each other: this is how feedback loops work.
There is some irony here. As western economies shifted from the production of ''things'' to the delivery of ''services'' over the last half-century, the proportion of their workforce in “white collar work” has exploded. There are more people in the UK today than there were in 1970, and almost none of them now work down the mines, on the production line or even in the menswear department at Grace Brothers, as we are given to believe they did a generation ago.  


As our technologies expand and encroach taming the unbroken landscapes, and disrupting the already -broken in and cultivated ones, let us take a moment to salute the human ingenuity that it takes to occupy those “solved” pursuits with a second order of required white collar attention. ESG specialists have evolved to opine on and steward forward our dashboards and marshall criteria for our environmental and social governance strategies — strategies we were until not happy enough to leave in for guidance by Adam Smith’s invisible hand. Blockchain as a service has emerged to provide a solution to those  
All kinds of occupations that scarcely existed when our parents were young have emerged, evolved, and self-declared themselves to be professions. The ratio of jobs requiring, ''de facto'', university degrees (the modern lite professional qualification) has grown. The number of universities have expanded as polytechnics rebadged themselves. This, too, feels like a [[system effect]] of the [[modernist]] orthodoxy: if we can only assess people by reference to formal criteria, then industries devoted to contriving and dishing out those criteria are sure to flourish. The self-interests of different constituencies in the system contrive to entrench each other: this is how [[feedback loop]]s work.
 
As technologies expand and encroach, taming unbroken landscapes and disrupting already-cultivated ones, let us take a moment to salute the human ingenuity that it takes to defy the march of the machines. For every technology that “solves” a formal pursuit there arises a second order of required white collar oversight. [[ESG]] specialists have evolved to opine on and steward forward our dashboards and marshall criteria for our environmental and social governance strategies — strategies we were until not happy enough to leave in for guidance by Adam Smith’s invisible hand. [[Blockchain as a service]] has emerged to provide a solution to those who believe in the power of disintermediated networks but want someone else to find in and do the heavy-lifting for them. AI compliance officers and prompt engineers steward our relationship with machines supposedly so clever they should not need hand-holding.


Other feedback loops emerge to counteract them. The high modernist programme can measure by any observable criteria, not just formal qualifications. Its favourite is [[cost]].<ref>The great conundrum posed by [[Taiichi Ohno|Ohno-sensei]]’s [[Toyota Production System]] is why prioritise [[cost]] over [[waste]]? Because cost is numerical and can easily be measured by the dullest book-keeper. Knowing what is [[waste]]ful in a process requires analysis and understanding of the system, and so cannot be easily measured. We go eliminate ''cost'' as a lazy proxy. It makes you wonder why executives are paid so well.</ref> The basic proposition is, “Okay, we need a human resources operation. I can't gainsay that. But it need not be housed in London, nor staffed by Oxbridge grads, if Romanian school leavers, supervised by an alumnus from the Plovdiv Technical Institute with a diploma in personnel management, will do.”
Other feedback loops emerge to counteract them. The high modernist programme can measure by any observable criteria, not just formal qualifications. Its favourite is [[cost]].<ref>The great conundrum posed by [[Taiichi Ohno|Ohno-sensei]]’s [[Toyota Production System]] is why prioritise [[cost]] over [[waste]]? Because cost is numerical and can easily be measured by the dullest book-keeper. Knowing what is [[waste]]ful in a process requires analysis and understanding of the system, and so cannot be easily measured. We go eliminate ''cost'' as a lazy proxy. It makes you wonder why executives are paid so well.</ref> The basic proposition is, “Okay, we need a human resources operation. I can't gainsay that. But it need not be housed in London, nor staffed by Oxbridge grads, if Romanian school leavers, supervised by an alumnus from the Plovdiv Technical Institute with a diploma in personnel management, will do.”