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But there have been contumelious prophecies of its demise before. In the manner of a blindfolded dartsman, Professor Richard Susskind OBE has been tossing them around for decades. Just by random chance, you would expect one to hit the wall at some point. | But there have been contumelious prophecies of its demise before. In the manner of a blindfolded dartsman, Professor Richard Susskind OBE has been tossing them around for decades. Just by random chance, you would expect one to hit the wall at some point. | ||
Is this | Is this big law’s Waterloo? Will [[ChatGPT]] do for our learned friends what the meteor did to the dinosaurs? | ||
Or will the lawyers survive? Might they even turn this to their advantage? | Or will the lawyers, like cockroaches, survive? Might they even turn this to their advantage? | ||
====Cui bono?==== | ====Cui bono?==== | ||
''Who benefits'', primarily, from this emergent technology? | ''Who benefits'', primarily, from this emergent technology? Experience should tell us that the first — and often the ''last'' — to benefit from legal productivity tools are the ''lawyers''. Should we expect [[this time is different|this time be different]]? | ||
Experience should tell us that the first — and often the ''last'' — to benefit from legal productivity tools are the ''lawyers''. | |||
Now, it is a truism that she who has a tool uses it, firstly, to improve her own lot. A commercial lawyer’s “lot” is predicated on two things: (1) ''[[time and attendance|time]]'' taken, and (2) ''[[Ineffable|ineffability]]'': the sense that what she does “passeth all [[muggle]] understanding”. | Now, it is a truism that she who has a tool uses it, firstly, to improve her own lot. A commercial lawyer’s “lot” is predicated on two things: (1) ''[[time and attendance|time]]'' taken, and (2) ''[[Ineffable|ineffability]]'': the sense that what she does “passeth all [[muggle]] understanding”. | ||
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It is a happy accident that, generally, (2) begets (1): the more ''ineffable'' something is, the longer it takes, and the harder it is to work with. The longer it takes, the more you can charge. | It is a happy accident that, generally, (2) begets (1): the more ''ineffable'' something is, the longer it takes, and the harder it is to work with. The longer it takes, the more you can charge. | ||
Commercial legal contracts are like that. Long, and once they have calcified into templates, fiddly. For lawyers, this is a capital state of affairs. It is why no commercial law firm on the planet ''really'' cares for [[plain English]]. Oh, they all ''say'', they do, of course — but ''come on''. | Commercial legal contracts are like that. Long, and once they have calcified into templates, fiddly. For lawyers, this is a capital state of affairs. It is why no commercial law firm on the planet ''really'' cares for [[plain English]]. Oh, they all ''say'', they do, of course — but ''come on''. | ||
This is, in itself, a neat “[[simplification|simplification defeat device]]”: if you make a contract template sufficiently convoluted, the one-off cost of simplifying it so vastly outweighs the cost of just “tweaking” and living with it that few clients will ever take that first step to simplify. Even though the the ongoing costs of ''not'' rationalising dwarf the one-off costs of doing so, the long-term savings are always over that hump. | This is, in itself, a neat “[[simplification|simplification defeat device]]”: if you make a contract template sufficiently convoluted, the one-off cost of simplifying it so vastly outweighs the cost of just “tweaking” and living with it that few clients will ever take that first step to simplify. Even though the the ongoing costs of ''not'' rationalising dwarf the one-off costs of doing so, the long-term savings are always over that hump. | ||