Unknowns: Difference between revisions

{{a|bi|{{knownbox}}}}{{c|Risk}}Say what you like about the neocons, but this, from [[Donald Rumsfeld]] was a modern classic:

:''Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are [[Known known - Risk Article|known knowns]]; there are things we know we know. We also know there are [[known unknown - Risk Article|known unknowns]]; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also [[unknown unknown - Risk Article|unknown unknown]]s—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.''

*'''{{risk|Unknown unknown}}''': the [[black swan]]s. This is where the risk is most acute, precisely because your risk taxonomy, with 20:20 [[hindsight]], is ''guaranteed'' to miss these altogether.

===The [[JC]]’s further categories of [[known]] ===

{{santayana}}

Not included in [[Rumsfeld’s taxonomy]] (perhaps because it doesn’t make much sense at first) are these [[JC]] coinages:

 

The '''{{risk|unknown known}}'''. Now, before you write this off, well — see the [[Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999]] for the sorts of things a well-ordered market can forget over sixty-odd years. The [[JC]] — who likes a pet theory, as readers will know — feels that [[unknown known]]s might be the riskiest bucket of the lot.