We will all have more leisure time in the future: Difference between revisions

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{{a|maxim|
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[[File:Dinocheckers.jpg|450px|thumb|center|Our future. Pity the poor robo-slave (out of picture): having to watch the idiot [[meatware]] mangle a basic Spassky/Fischer opening must be some kind of ''torture''.]]  
[[File:Dinocheckers.jpg|450px|thumb|center|Our future. Pity the poor robo-slave (out of picture): having to watch the idiot [[meatware]] mangle a basic Spassky/Fischer opening must be some kind of ''torture''.]]  
}}The idea, propagated by [[thought leader]]s like {{author|Ray Kurzweil}}<ref>{{br|The Singularity is Near}}</ref> and more recently {{author|Daniel Susskind}}<ref>{{br|A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond}}. See also {{author|David Goodhart}}’s more thoughtful (but still, on this point, misguided) {{br|Head Hand Heart}}.</ref> that [[Chatbot|robots]] and [[artificial intelligence]] will, shortly, entirely supplant the need for human labour. The most pressing problem: ''what to do with all the spare time we’ll suddenly have?''
}}The idea, propagated by [[thought leader]]s like {{author|Ray Kurzweil}}<ref>{{br|The Singularity is Near}}</ref> and more recently erstwhile DB boss John Cryan<ref>[[Rumours of our demise are greatly exaggerated - technology article|Rumours of our demise are greatly exaggerated]].</ref> and heir to the Susskind pofessional clairvoyance dynasty {{author|Daniel Susskind}}<ref>{{br|A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond}}. See also {{author|David Goodhart}}’s more thoughtful (but still, on this point, misguided) {{br|Head Hand Heart}}.</ref> that [[Chatbot|robots]] and [[artificial intelligence]] will, shortly, entirely supplant the need for human labour.  


Seeing as the [[meatware]] will no longer be needed to operate [[Jacquard loom]]s, wipe bottoms, write [[A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond - Book Review|wishful dystopian techno-political tracts]] or formulate business change programmes, we will loaf around instead, playing [[chess]] and drinking grappa in the Peloponnese, like normal Greek pensioners do.
Thus, our most pressing problem: ''what to do with all the spare time we’ll suddenly have?''


It sounds great, doesn’t it! (Let’s not dwell on the thought that the robo-slave engaged to serve the grappa and wipe our arses could wipe the floor with us at chess, too, if it wanted to.)
Seeing as the [[meatware]] will no longer be needed to operate [[Jacquard loom]]s, wipe bottoms, write [[A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond - Book Review|wishful dystopian techno-political tracts]] or [[Change manager|manage business change programmes]], we will loaf around instead, playing [[chess]] and drinking grappa in the Peloponnese, the way Mediterranean pensioners have since time immemorial.  


Now if something about this idea nudges your implausibility hooter, you would not be alone: there are at least two of us.  
Sounds great, doesn’t it! (Best not to dwell on the thought that the robo-slave serving the grappa and wiping our arses could wipe the floor with us at [[chess]], too, if it wanted to.)


For one thing, recent experience which, from our [[perspective chauvinism|vantage point]], has been some kind of technological [[Cambrian explosion]],  so far has had ''quite the opposite effect''. There is more work than ever. it might be utterly [[tedious]]; it might crush the very will to power within each of us, but presently it is well and truly barricading the way to that chessboard in Στούπα.
Now if something about this scenario nudges your implausibility hooter, you would not be alone: there are at least two of us.  


So, for that matter, has ancient history: the unerring consequence of technological revolution, since the plough, has been ''more work''.
For one thing, recent experience which, from our [[perspective chauvinism|vantage point]], has been some kind of [[Cambrian explosion]] over thirty or more years, so far has had ''quite the opposite effect''. There is more work than ever. Granted, [[internal audit]], software [[change manager|change management]] and operations analytics might not be the effervescent future any of us envisaged as wild undergraduate dreamers — but [[who breaks a butterfly on a wheel]]? Knowing that might have crushed the very will to power within each of us, like a painted flower. That was then: now that [[book of work]] it is well and truly barricades the way to that chessboard in Στούπα.


But, but, but: ''[[this time is different]]''.
So, for that matter, has ancient history: the unerring consequence of each technological revolution, since the plough, has been ''more, different, work''.
 
But, but, but: ''[[this time is different]]''. This time the machines


The theory of [[technological unemployment]] assumes:
The theory of [[technological unemployment]] assumes:
*that all labour activities in the economy can, and before long, will have been articulated in such a way that they can be entirely, reliably and cheaply carried out by [[artificial intelligence]];
*that all labour activities in the economy can, and before long, will have been articulated in such a way that they can be entirely, reliably and cheaply carried out by [[artificial intelligence]];|
*that once they have been so automated, those activities will nonetheless hold their value and become worthless overnight, as has every other artisanal craft made redundant by machinery in human history;  
*that once they have been so automated, those activities will nonetheless hold their value and become worthless overnight, as has every other artisanal craft made redundant by machinery in human history;  
*that an economy which has been thus automated to saturation, and to which human participants no longer contribute, will still function more or less as normal, and  
*that an economy which has been thus automated to saturation, and to which human participants no longer contribute, will still function more or less as normal, and