The Jolly Contrarian

We will all have more leisure time in the future: Difference between revisions

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We will all have more leisure time in the future (view source)

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Now if something about this scenario nudges your implausibility hooter, you would not be alone: there are at least two of us.  
Now if something about this scenario nudges your implausibility hooter, you would not be alone: there are at least two of us.  


For one thing, recent experience which, from our [[perspective chauvinism|vantage point]], has been some kind of [[Cambrian explosion]] over thirty or more years, so far has had ''quite the opposite effect''. There is more work than ever. Granted, [[internal audit]], software [[change manager|change management]] and operations analytics might not be the effervescent future any of us envisaged as wild undergraduate dreamers — but [[who breaks a butterfly on a wheel]]? Knowing that might have crushed the very will to power within each of us, like a painted flower. That was then: now that [[book of work]] it is well and truly barricades the way to that chessboard in Στούπα.
For one thing, from our [[perspective chauvinism|vantage point]], recent experience has been some kind of [[Cambrian explosion]] lasting thirty-odd years, but so far this has had ''quite the opposite effect''. There is more work now than ever. Granted, [[internal audit]], software [[change manager|change management]] and operations analytics might not be the effervescent future we envisaged as wild undergraduate dreamers — but had anyone known, would they have told us? [[Who breaks a butterfly on a wheel]]? Knowing our actual future might have crushed the very will to power within each of us, like a painted flower. In any case, that was then: now that [[book of work]] is here and well and truly barricades the way to that chessboard in Στούπα.  


So, for that matter, has ancient history: the unerring consequence of each technological revolution, since the plough, has been ''more, different, work''.
And isn’t this the point? ''No-one'' knows what we might wind up doing in ineffable, co-evolving future: for all we know it might ''not'' be regulatory change programme management — but, ahhh, don’t bet on it — but if the past, ancient and modern, is any guide there will be something, it will be [[tedious]], and it sure as hell ain’t going to be chugging ''génépi'' over a backgammon board in the ''Haute-Savoie''.


But, but, but: ''[[this time is different]]''. This time the machines
Ahh, sayeth the digital prophets of our time: but ''is'' the past any guide? We say it is not. ''[[This time is different]]''. This time the machines will not just be our handmaidens; ''they will replace us altogether''.


The theory of [[technological unemployment]] assumes:
Okay; let’s run with that for now. Even if that is right, the theory of [[technological unemployment]] assumes:
*that all labour activities in the economy can, and before long, will have been articulated in such a way that they can be entirely, reliably and cheaply carried out by [[artificial intelligence]];|
*that all labour activities in the economy can, and before long, will have been articulated in such a way that they can be entirely, reliably and cheaply carried out by [[artificial intelligence]];
*that once they have been so automated, those activities will nonetheless hold their value and become worthless overnight, as has every other artisanal craft made redundant by machinery in human history;  
*that once they have been so automated, those activities will nonetheless hold their value and become worthless overnight, as has every other artisanal craft made redundant by machinery in human history;  
*that an economy which has been thus automated to saturation, and to which human participants no longer contribute, will still function more or less as normal, and  
*that an economy which has been thus automated to saturation, and to which human participants no longer contribute, will still function more or less as normal, and  
*that, in other words, an entire economy not only can be fully determined —  ''solved'' — but has been: that our current polity is in a fully [[Taxonomy|taxonomised]], [[Taylorism|Taylorised]] end-of-history state in which no new activities or work categories are possible, and all that do currently exist can be more effectively carried out by machine — ''they have abolished the patent office'';
*that, in other words, an entire economy not only can be fully determined —  ''solved'' — but has been: that our current polity is in a fully [[Taxonomy|taxonomised]], [[Taylorism|Taylorised]] end-of-history state in which no new activities or work categories are possible, and all that do currently exist can be more effectively carried out by machine — ''they have abolished the patent office'';
These three assumptions being transparently absurd, this gets the [[Yngwie Malmsteen paradox]] 180° back to front. Increasing automation will create ''more'' [[risk]], not ''less''; will generate ''more'' [[complexity]] not ''less'', and ''more'' potential for catastrophe, not ''less''. We will all be kept busy.
 
But the theory ''isn’t'' right. ''These assumptions are transparently absurd''. They get the [[Yngwie Malmsteen paradox]] 180° back to front. the more information processing power we have, the more complicated our infoirmation structures will be. This is because we are lazy, backward looking creatures. Increasing automation increases [[complexity]], multiplies the interconnectivity between components of our distributed systems, accelerates the speed at which data circulates, and [[Tight coupling|tightens the couplings]] between components. The [[JC]] has been harping on about systems theory and complexity in recent times, but it is clear that [[artificial intelligence]] can’t solve complex problems. They can only make them worse.
 
In an {{nutshell}}: put away the checkerboard and stick the ''limoncello'' back in the cupboard. There’s work to do.


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*[[This time is different]]
*[[This time is different]]
*[[Perspective chauvinism]]
*[[Perspective chauvinism]]
*[[Systems theory]


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