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What We Owe The Future: Difference between revisions
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Thanks — but no thanks. | Thanks — but no thanks. | ||
===[[Expected value theory]] and [[complex systems]]=== | ===[[Expected value theory]] and [[complex systems]]=== | ||
It is not at all clear what anyone can do to influence the unknowably distant future — a meteor could wipe us out any time — but in any case expected value probability calculations | It is not at all clear what anyone can do to influence the unknowably distant future — a meteor could wipe us out any time — but in any case [[expected value]] probability calculations won’t help. Nor does MacAskill say ''why'' we organisms who are here ''now'' should give a flying hoot for the race of pan-dimensional hyperbeings we will have evolved into — or been eaten by — countless millennia into the future. | ||
Presumably our duty isn’t a function of simple lineage — that feels ''un''altruistic — but is a generally derived obligation to whatever living thing is, for the time being, here? | |||
{{Quote|Quick side bar: [[Probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability of rolling a six is ⅙ because a die has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, and must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. ''This is not how most things in life work''. Probabilities work for [[finite game]]s. ''The future is in no sense a finite game''. It is unbounded, ambiguous, incomplete, the range of possible outcomes are not known and may as well be infinite. ''You can't calculate probabilities about it''. {{Author|Gerd Gigerenzer}} would say it is a situation of ''uncertainty'', not ''risk''. ''Expectation theory is worthless.''}} | {{Quote|Quick side bar: [[Probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability of rolling a six is ⅙ because a die has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, and must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. ''This is not how most things in life work''. Probabilities work for [[finite game]]s. ''The future is in no sense a finite game''. It is unbounded, ambiguous, incomplete, the range of possible outcomes are not known and may as well be infinite. ''You can't calculate probabilities about it''. {{Author|Gerd Gigerenzer}} would say it is a situation of ''uncertainty'', not ''risk''. ''Expectation theory is worthless.''}} | ||
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This demolishes MacAskill’s foundational premise — applied “expectation theory” is how he draws his conclusions about the plight of the [[Morlock]]s of our future — and is enough to trash the book’s thesis ''in toto''. | This demolishes MacAskill’s foundational premise — applied “expectation theory” is how he draws his conclusions about the plight of the [[Morlock]]s of our future — and is enough to trash the book’s thesis ''in toto''. | ||
===Why stop with humans?=== | ===Why stop with humans?=== | ||
Does this self-sacrifice for the hereafter also apply to non-sapient beasts, fish and fowls, too? Bushes and trees? If not, why not? | Does this self-sacrifice for the hereafter also apply to non-sapient beasts, fish and fowls, too? Bushes and trees? Invaders from Mars? If not, why not? | ||
If present homo sapiens really is such a | If present homo sapiens really is such a hopelessly venal case, who is to say it can redeem itself millennia into the future? What makes Macaskill think ''future'' us deserves that chance that ''present'' us is blowing so badly? Perhaps it would be better off for everyone else — especially said saintly beasts, fish fowls, bushes and trees — if we just winked out now? | ||
===The [[FTX]] connection=== | ===The [[FTX]] connection=== | ||
MacAskill’s loopy Futurism appeals to the silicon valley demi-god types who have a weakness for Wagnerian psychodrama and glib [[a priori]] [[simulation hypothesis|sci fi futurism]]. | MacAskill’s loopy Futurism appeals to the silicon valley demi-god types who have a weakness for Wagnerian psychodrama and glib [[a priori]] [[simulation hypothesis|sci fi futurism]]. | ||