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| {{a|devil| | | {{essay|isda|When variation margin attacks|{{image|Archegos Positions|png|When [[variation margin]] attacks: ViacomCBS, Tencent, Baidu and Vipshop against the Dow (black)}}}} |
| [[File:Blackadder.png|450px|frameless|center]]
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| }}{{quote|
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| BLACKADDER: Look, there’s no need to panic. Someone in the crew will know how to steer this thing. <br>
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| CAPTAIN RUM: The crew, milord? What crew?<br>
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| BLACKADDER: I was under the impression that it was common maritime practice for a ship to have a crew. <br>
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| CAPTAIN RUM: Opinion is divided on the subject. <br>
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| BLACKADDER: Oh, really? <br>
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| RUM: Yes. All the other captains say it ''is''; I say it ''isn’t''. <br>
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| :—Blackadder, Series 2: ''Potato''}}
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| Any of the standard reference works<ref>Goldsmith, Armitage & Berlin, ''Teach Yourself Law'', Book IV; The Open University Criminology Course, Part I; The ''Perry Mason Book For Boys'', 1962, [[Aleebee|needless to say]].</ref> will tell you that [[variation margin]] is a good thing, apt for ridding the world of the kinds of systemic risk that have the habit of building up in the financial system.
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| Since, like Captain Redbeard Rum, your loyal contrarian is going to run against what all the other captains will tell, you, let me set the scene with a story.
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| ===Once upon a time in America===
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| {{quote|''Shares of ViacomCBS closed down 9% Tuesday, a day after the company said it would raise $3 billion from stock offerings. The stock offerings come just a few weeks after the company launched its Paramount+ streaming service, and the offerings will help the company bulk up its content. ViacomCBS said it would use the funds to power “investments in streaming,” among other general corporate purposes.''
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| :—CNBC, March 23, 2021}}
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| {{archegos capsule}} | |
| ===The curious regulation of [[variation margin]]===
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| Now here is an interesting thing. Because [[Archegos]] gained their market exposure using [[Equity derivatives|swaps]], ''by regulation'', their brokers were ''obliged'' to pay out their realised gains<ref>For [[prime broker]]<nowiki/>s charging “[[dynamic margin]]” this was partly offset by the effect of increased [[initial margin]] required on the inflated value of the position in question; for those charging only a [[static margin]] amount, there was not even that fig-leaf. </ref> or “[[net equity]]”, every day, in cash, in the form of [[variation margin]]. To be sure, the broker usually pays [[VM]] into a bank account it runs for its client. There are withdrawal thresholds that apply to that account that takes into account required [[initial margin]] — oh, that’s another story altogether — but over those thresholds all the variation margin is the client’s money, available to be withdrawn on request.
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| This is completely normal in the world of latter-day [[Derivative|derivatives]]: mandatory two-way exchange of [[variation margin]] was implemented by regulation in pretty much every major market ''in the name of reducing systemic risk'' — but all the same, in the context of [[Archegos]], it does look weird. It is like ''forced'' [[swap dealer]]<nowiki/>s to extend additional lending against asset appreciation, regardless of the likelihood that the asset might then ''de''preciate again. Imagine if your bank, by law, had to pay you the cash value of any increase in your home’s value over the life of your mortgage.
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| Had Archegos put the equivalent ''physical'' positions on, using [[margin loan]]s, its [[prime broker]]<nowiki/>s would ''not'' have ''had'' to advance it the cash value of its [[net equity]]. Now to be sure they may well have ''willingly'' done so, of course – lending on margin is how [[prime broker]]s make their money after all — but being ''able'' to lend money, and being ''obliged'' to lend money are quite different propositions on that special day when it seems the whole world is going to hell.<ref>It is fair to note that — with the possible exception of the vampire squid — [[Archegos]]’s brokers did ''not'' believe the world was going to hell, at least not until it was far too late. But the principle remains.</ref> And the more precipitately a position has gone ''up'', the more likely it is to come precipitately ''down'' again.
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| === A dissonance ===
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| So there is this [[dissonance]], between [[Cash prime brokerage|''physical'' prime brokerage]], where lending money against [[net equity]] is at the [[prime broker]]’s discretion — oh, sure, you may withdraw your [[net equity]] at any time, but you have to take it [[Payment in kind|in kind]]<ref>Withdrawing [[net equity]] in the form of the [[shares]] themselves, rather than their [[cash]] value, has a very different effect on the [[prime broker]]’s risk profile. It makes the client’s portfolio ''less'' volatile; withdrawing [[cash]] makes it ''more'' volatile.</ref> or liquidate your position, if you want it in cash — and [[Synthetic prime brokerage|''synthetic'' prime brokerage]], where cash payment of that value of that net equity — in the swaps world, known as “[[variation margin]]” — is required by regulation.
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| That’s worth dwelling on: if you liquidate your position, sure you get all your cash, but you go ''off risk''. If the market tanks the next day, happy days all round. You’ve closed out your stake and taken your money off the table. With [[variation margin]], you get to keep your stake ''and'' take your money off the table.
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| Since this is required ''by [[Regulatory margin|co-ordinated world-wide regulation]]'' for swaps, it doesn’t take great imagination to read across to physical positions since they are, to all intents and purposes, economically identical. “Hang on a minute,” clients and their [[Buy-side legal eagle|advisors]] will say, “if you have to pay out my cash equity value under a swap, why can’t I have it for an equivalent physical position?”
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| On its face, this is a fair question, to which the answer is either: “Huh. I hadn’t thought of that. Yes, I suppose you are right. Here you go!” — call this the “all other captains” argument; or: “Well that just goes to show what a misconceived idea compulsory two-way [[variation margin]] is. There’s no way on earth I’m automatically paying out your equity in cash” — call this the “Redbeard Rum” argument.
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| The [[JC]] prefers the Redbeard Rum argument.
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| “Come on, [[JC]]: I know you are a cranky old bugger. But do you really mean to say you are going to swim against the tide of all that consensus?”
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| Allow the cranky old fellow to launch his languid socio-historical explanation, and please indulge him, by pretending he would not instantly be cut off, mid-sentence, like so: “all right then: if you won’t give me cash for my physical longs, I’ll just put them on swap.”
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| ==Banking, in the good old days==
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| In the good old days — in the time of the [[Children of the Forest]], before the [[First Men]] — the overall vibe of the financial system was circumspect, self-imposed ''[[prudence]]'': musty institutions, staffed by Captain Mainwaring-types, providing stodgy, unflamboyant loan facilities and broking services to clients who were grateful to be offered them, and who would produce whatever sureties their banks required as a condition to being allowed to do business.
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| The financial services industry cleaved, basically, into two types of participant: ''intermediaries'' and ''customers''. We have waxed [[Look, I tried|elsewhere]] about the countless ways businesses can contrive to interpose themselves into a process that oughtn’t to need ''that'' much intermediating, but let us, for today’s outing, take it as we find it.
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| ==== Intermediaries ====
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| There are lots of types of intermediary: those who comprise market infrastructure: [[Exchange|stock exchange]]s, [[clearing system]]s, securities depositories and so on; those who earn only a [[commission]] from their involvement, and take no [[principal]] risk<ref>I include here “[[quasi-agent]]” roles that are conducted on a [[riskless principal]], but (absent insolvency) are economically neutral: thse participants are remunerated by [[commission]] or fixed [[mark-up]] and do not have “[[Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life - Book Review|skin in the game]]”.</ref>: [[Cash brokerage|cash broker]]<nowiki/>s, [[Investment manager|investment managers]], [[Clearing broker|clearer]]<nowiki/>s, [[Market-maker|market-makers]] and [[Intermediate broker|intermediate brokers]]; and those who ''do'' take principal risk, but only by lending to their customers, and generally don’t participate in the upside or downside<ref>Barring through “gap loss” where, due to portfolio losses, the customer is insolvent and cannot repay its loan.</ref> of the investments they are financing: [[Bank|banks]].
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| All of these intermediaries have one thing in common: their remuneration does not depend on how their customer’s investments perform.<ref>Unless they perform ''so'' badly they cause the customer’s bankruptcy.</ref> Intermediaries do not have [[Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life - Book Review|skin in the game]]. They are not supposed to lose ''any'' money, let alone billions of dollars of the stuff.
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| ==== Customers ====
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| Customers, of course, ''do'' have skin in the game: they take all the benefits — less their intermediaries’ fees, commissions and financing costs of course — and are first in line<ref>Of course, if the investors should run out of sponges, or their buckets are all full, while there are still some losses left to go round, these get passed to the poor [[Bank|banker]]<nowiki/>s and [[Intermediary|intermediaries]] who may still be owed something. This is why we say investors have a “[[first-loss]]” risk: once they have been wiped from the horizon, any remaining losses go to the investors’ [[Creditor|creditors]], who thus have “[[second-loss]]” risk, whether they like it, or even know it, or not.</ref> to absorb all the losses of their investments. They may be [[Professional client|institutional]] (pension funds, investment funds, multinationals) or [[Retail client|retail]] (private investors) and while the range of investment products they can invest in will depend on their sophistication and financial resources, they are not usually not subject to any kind of prudential regulation. They can, and do, blow up.
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| More speculative investment vehicles like [[hedge fund]]<nowiki/>s may be highly [[Vega|geared]] and quite ''likely'' to blow up. This is where intermediaries have some [[second-loss]] tail risk: if the customer has blown up, the intermediary loses anything the customer still owes it. Investment funds have ''no'' capital buffer. When they “[[Gap-risk|gap]]” through zero, their counterparties absorb ''all'' their market risk, despite wishing to have none of it. [[Broker]]s, banks and and [[dealer]]s ''do'' have a capital buffer, and if their clients’ positions gap through zero, can usually absorb losses, as Archegos’ [[prime broker]]s ably proved.
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| But in any weather, up until the early 1980s, you were either a customer or an intermediary and the above was all quite well settled. But innovations in the market, technology and regulation began to change things.
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| =='''The multi-coloured swap shop'''==
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| [[File:Noel.png|right|frameless]]
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| The [[swap history|history of swaps]] is interesting and fairly well-documented. It all started in earnest in 1981, with a bright idea [[Salomon Brothers]] had to match up IBM, who needed U.S. dollars but had a load of Swiss francs and Deutschmarks, with the World Bank, which had all the dollars anyone could need but needed to meet obligations in CHF and DEM which it wasn’t able to borrow. The two institutions “swapped” their debts, exchanging dollars for the European currencies and paying [[coupon]]<nowiki/>s on them, with an agreement to return the the same values of the respective currencies at maturity.
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| Everyone else recognised this to be a cool idea, and before you know it, swaps trading was a trillion dollar industry. Okay; this took a bit of time, but in the geological history of finance from the time of Hammurabi, it was the blink of an eye. But anyway, note a few things:
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| Unlike traditional banking activity, swap transactions are ''bilateral''. In one sense, ''both'' parties were lending to each other — hence they were not just parties, but “''counter''parties”.<ref>Or maybe this just means they sat at a counter. This has just occurred to me. Why not? These are [[OTC|over-the-counter]] derivatives, after all.</ref> In another sense, ''neither'' was: as long as you could [[Set-Off|offset]] the swapped loans, at inception a swap trade was market neutral: each “lent” the other something of equal value.<ref>Law students will know this notion of enforceable set-off is a tricky one, especially if you are trading across international markets, where insolvency regimes are capricious, and might struggle to understand it, in a way they tended not to struggle with ordinary secured lending. Hence the great, tedious topic of [[Close-out netting|netting]], which isn’t wildly germane to this essay except to point out that [[Credit risk mitigation|credit mitigation]] for swaps by set-off, not security, and credit risk can swing around, depending on the market value of the underlying obligations.</ref>
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| But the respective values of those lent “somethings” do not stay put, and so the economic profile of a swap — being the [[prevailing value]] of one of those “somethings” minus the [[prevailing value]] of the other — does not ''stay'' neutral. Its “[[mark-to-market]] value” will change. Depending on how the cross-rates move, ''either'' party can be owed money. Hence, the concept of “[[moneyness]]”: on any day, either party to a swap can be “[[in-the-money]]” — if the “something” it owes the other party is smaller than the “something” the other party owes it — or [[out-of-the-money]], if it owes more than it is due.
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| This whole idea of “moneyness”, and either party potentially being owed money, was quite a new thing, and it really challenged the philosophy of financial services regulation. Until now, there had always been an intermediary and a customer, and you always knew who was who: the intermediary was authorised, regulated to provide its services and appropriately capitalised ''to protect the customer'';<ref>And its depositors: also customers.</ref> the customer didn’t need to be regulated as it the intermediary could obviously look after itself.
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| Swaps challenged all that: now ''either'' party could be creditor or debtor. It was hard to know who to regulate. Who needed protecting from whom? Did they ''both'' have to be regulated? Or ''neither''? For the first couple of decades, the answer was basically “neither”.<ref name="fwmd">Hence widespread allusions to the wild west, [[Locust|locusts]], [[Black swan|black swans]], casino banking, [[financial weapons of mass destruction]] and so on.</ref>
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| ==== Intermediaries, redux ====
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| So, the clarity about who was an intermediary broke down a little. Swaps did not necessarily need an intermediary at all, though in practice these days there usually is one: the very first swap, between IBM and the World Bank, was between two customers, or “[[end-user]]<nowiki/>s”, in that each took principal risk to the transaction. And there is an entire realm of swap trades ''between'' intermediaries, where neither side is a “customer” as such.
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| But the huge preponderance of swap volume is between an [[intermediary]] — a “[[swap dealer]]” — on one side and a [[customer]] — on the other.
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| So, are [[swap dealer|swap dealers]] “intermediaries” in the traditional sense, having no “skin in the game”? In one sense, no: being a principal to the swap contract, the [[swap dealer|dealer]] takes the other side of the trade to its customer, and is fully exposed to the [[underlier]]’s performance. But in another sense, yes: it ''is'' an intermediary: [[swap dealer]]<nowiki/>s generally [[Delta-hedging|delta-hedge]] their risk. In many cases are prohibited by regulation from taking proprietary positions.<ref>This is the famous “Volcker Rule”.</ref> In the classic case of equity swaps, the dealer executes a physical trade in the cash market, holds or finances that position, and prices its swap at exactly that price. It has no net exposure to the trade at all. Economically, it is no different from a broker lending on margin.
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| ==== Deregulation and electronic trading ====
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| At about the same time computer-based trading began to revolutionising the financial markets and the madcap spirit of 1980s free-love ''laissez-faire'' delivered their radical deregulation. It is not unreasonable to suppose these conditions contributed to an explosion in the market for OTC swaps during the 1980s.<ref>These three forces combined to create a mammoth. [http://faculty.citadel.edu/silver/IF/MBA_course/Chap9_Swap_Evolution.pdf Citadel] estimates USD interest rate swaps volumes went from from zero in 1981 to over half a billion dollars by 1987. </ref>
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| == Risk management under the ISDA ==
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| It did not take long for folks to realise that these new [[swap]] things presented a whole new class of risks.<ref name="fwmd"/>
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| Swaps provide “unfunded” financial exposure to assets: you don’t own the assets, much less pay for them: you don’t have to put any money down up front at all.<ref>Besides any [[initial margin]] your counterparty required: see below.</ref> This is, economically, the same as betting.<ref>It is also the same as buying (or selling) insurance, with one difference: to be insured, you must suffer an insurable loss.</ref> Given the size of individual swap transactions — typically in the millions of dollars — your total notional exposure can quickly blow out of all proportion. The market hit upon two neat tricks to manage these risks: [[netting]] and [[credit support]].
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| ==== Netting ====
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| We are not really concerned with netting here — the [[JC]] has plenty to say on that topic [[Close-out netting|elsewhere]] — so let’s quickly deal with it: just as you could offset the [[present value]] of the opposing ''legs'' of each transaction to calculate a positive or negative [[mark-to-market]] value for that swap, so too could you offset positive and negative [[mark-to-market]] values for different swap transactions to arrive at a single net exposure for your whole {{isdama}}. This idea — [[close-out netting]] — was a stroke of genius, and the brave commandos of {{icds}} encoded this “[[single agreement]]” concept into the {{1987ma}} and its successors. Giving effect to netting contracts, and attaining the capital relief they promise is now a multi-million-dollar industry.
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| ==== Credit support ====
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| But even with netting, the [[Leverage|levered]] nature of swap transactions means that your overall net exposure can still swing around wildly.
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| In 1994 ISDA released a “[[credit support annex]]” to the {{isdama}} under which the parties could exchange “credit support” to offset their respective net exposures. This is all rather complicated and fiddly<ref>See our [[CSA Anatomy]], for as much detail as any one person could want.</ref> but the gist of it is that you calculate your net [[exposure]] under an {{Isdama}} on any day and, if it is over an agreed threshold, you can require your counterparty “post” you cash or securities as collateral for that exposure. If the exposure then swings back towards your counterparty tomorrow, it can require you to return equivalent assets . Rinse and repeat.
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| This is rather neat, because it “zeroes out” each party’s [[credit exposure]] to the other each day.
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| Like the {{Isdama}}, the [[CSA]] is a bilateral document: it assumes the parties are equal, arm’s-length counterparties and that each can post to the other. In the early days, [[Swap dealer|swap dealers]] often adjusted their CSAs so that only the customer posted credit support. This made sense, since end-users of swaps tend not to be prudentially regulated and therefore are not heavily capitalised, whereas intermediaries and swap dealers usually are. What is more, over this period, the [[Basel Accords]] published increasingly stringent and detailed rules<ref>Basel I was 30 pages. Basel II, published June 2006 (whoops!) was 347 pages. Basel III, as of September 2021, is 1626 pages.</ref> about how much capital banks should hold against their trading exposures to their customers.
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| If at first customers were less bothered about the creditworthiness of their swap dealers,<ref>To be sure, sophisticated investment managers were already requiring their dealers post [[variation margin]] by the the start of the new millennium.</ref> this all changed, fast, during the 2008 financial crisis in which every major dealer had at least a near-death experience, and a number — [[Lehman]], Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, and literally dozens of others<ref>This is a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_acquired_or_bankrupted_during_the_Great_Recession fun list].</ref> had actual ones.
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| Suddenly the dealers, themselves were a source of systemic risk.
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| The regulatory reform machine moved into overdrive; the era of unregulated derivatives was over. Regulators the world over began requiring ''all'' swap counterparties, prudentially regulated or not, to provide [[variation margin]] on all common forms of swap contract: bilateral, daily, and in [[Cash|''cash'']].
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| ===== Remember the good old days =====
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| Now remember that old distinction between “intermediary” and “customer”. Intermediaries are meant to be well-capitalised; they don’t have a dog in the fight: their interest is just in collecting their commission. Their customers take the market risks.
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| Swap dealers ''look'' like they are taking market risks, but they are not. Post Volcker, they are not ''allowed'' to. Swap dealers are passing on the return of their hedging activity to their customers, and collecting commissions and interest on financing.<ref>We have in mind [[Synthetic equity swap|synthetic equity derivatives]] here. This may be less clearly the case in other asset classes, but it is still (post Volcker) broadly true for all of them.</ref> They are somewhat at the mercy of their customers: having put positions on, their legal rights to terminate them again tend to be legally and [[Commercial imperative|commercially]] circumscribed. Customers can terminate at any time — it’s their investment — and for any reason, including vague nervousness about the solvency of their dealer.
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| ===== Physical prime brokerage =====
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| You can, and physical [[prime brokerage]] customers do, achieve exactly the same effect with a [[Margin lending|margin loan]]: the customer buys shares on margin; the [[prime broker]] holds the shares as collateral for the loan. If the shares decline in value, the broker may call for more margin. If the shares rise in value, the customer generates increased equity with the broker, but is not automatically entitled to the cash value of that equity. There is no variation margin, as such.
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| But here is the difference: the [[prime broker]] may ''agree'' to lend more against that equity — that is the business it is in, after all — but it is not ''obliged'' to. The customer cannot force the broker to lend against the equity. As long as it leaves enough equity in the account the customer may withdraw excess equity, but only by taking the shares it owns. Withdrawing ''shares'' from a prime brokerage account doesn’t fundamentally change ones debtor/creditor relationship. Withdrawing cash ''against'' shares assuredly does.
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| Now: because a synthetic swap position looks like a bilateral derivative — okay, okay: ''is'' a bilateral derivative — it is regulated as such, and is in scope for mandatory variation margin. ''Both'' sides are obliged to post [[VM]], every day, where they are [[out-of-the-money]]. Whenever a customer makes any positive return on an [[equity swap]], its swap dealer is, technically, [[out-of-the-money]], and must therefore post [[variation margin]] to the value of that positive return.
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| This is the equivalent of forcing the swap dealer to lend against equity on a margin loan. It is ''nuts''. To see ''why'' it is nuts, let’s return to our old friends at [[Archegos]].
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| ==When variation margin attacks==
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| Swap trading involves [[market risk]] and [[credit risk]].
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| [[Market risk|''Market'' risk]] is the risk that an asset goes ''up'' when you want it to go ''down'', or ''down'' when you want it to go ''up''. [[Credit risk|''Credit'' risk]] is the risk that the person whom you want to pay you that return cannot, because that she is ''broke''.
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| [[Variation margin]] is meant to neutralise both: if the day’s loser squares up the value of her loss each day in collateral to the winner, the parties reduce their respective credit exposure to nil: if neither party owes anything on the trade, there is no credit risk.
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| [[File:Archegos Positions.png|thumb|The purple, blue, light blue and red lines are the key parts of Archegos’ portfolio between March 2020 and August 2021. The big drop is 21 March 2021.]]
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| But markets, like sharks, never stop moving. The assessment that “neither party owes anything on the trade” is good only for the instant it is made. Things can change quickly. Generally the further something goes up, the quicker it comes down.
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| Let’s have another look at that lovely [[Archegos]] chart: over 6 months from September these stocks rallied on average 54%. Then, in just four days, these stocks fell fully half that value.
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| And here we see the buried credit risk of variation margin. As those positions appreciated, the brokers were obliged to pay their cash value, in VM, to Archegos. Archegos used some of this rising equity to buy more shares in the same stocks, further pushing up their price, obliging the brokers to pay more VM.
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| Archegos put ''all'' its cash into more positions. As the stock rose, its absolute position in the shares grew too.
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| Say it held 100 shares at 40, fully margined. Should they appreciate to 60, it's net equity increases 2,000. Broker credits it with the cash and it buys a further 25 shares at 60, pushing the price to 80. This results in a net equity increase of 4000, to 10000, so the broker pays out 4000 more, Which it used to buy a further 40 shares. Note it's holding is 165 shares and the price surges to 100. Broker dutifully credits a further 6500 in VM, which the customer withdraws and uses to buy another 55 shares, taking is total holding to 220.
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| Take (er) stock: the stock has rallied 120%. The broker has paid out 12500 is variation margin, to well over 300% of the original investment value. The customer has no cash.
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| Now the stock retreats to 80. The broker calls for margin, but the customer has no cash. Three customer tries to sell positions but suddenly the ask 50. Even if the customer sold its whole holding at this price — fat chance in a thin falling market, the broker would lose 1500 of its cash.
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| Once those
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| You generally have one risk or the other at any time: it is not much good having made a killing on the roulette table if the casino is bankrupt, because it cannot give you any money for your chips. If, on the other hand, you have already lost everything at the card table, it does not matter much if the casino is broke, because it didn’t owe you anything anyway.
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| Under a swap at any time, the [[out-of-the-money]] counterparty has [[market risk]], because it is losing on the trade, and the [[in-the-money]] one has [[credit exposure]], because it stands to lose if the other guy can’t pay out its profit. [[Variation margin]] addresses that [[Credit risk|''credit'' exposure]] by requiring the [[out-of-the-money]] counterparty pays out variation margin equal to its moneyness, in full, every day even though the game is still going. If things get worse, you have to give some of the variation margin back. If you start losing, you have to pay variation margin to the house.
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| {{Sa}}
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| *[[Transaction terminations and VM]]
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| *[[Variation margin]]
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| *[[Archegos]]
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| *[[Swap history]]
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| {{ref}}
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