Miscarriages of justice

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Standard of proof

Beyond reasonable doubt is a very high standard. This is not just more likely than not: there has to be no room for doubt about it. This means an alternative explanation, if it is not absurd, if it cannot be ruled out It is satisfiable easily enough where there is direct independent evidence — from a third party with no interest “no dog in the fight” who directly witnessed what was going on.

Where there is no direct evidence, then the circumstantial evidence has to be compelling.

• No plausible alternative explanation, including “shit happens”

Circumstantial considerations

• Alleged method:
  • Letby: no consistent MO: multiple kinds: insulin, air embolism, overfeeding, knocking out tubes. Sounds like you are fitting the action to the outcome and not vice versa. If you discover 15 people all of whom have been shot between the eyes with the same calibre rifle in the same neighbourhood, there is a starting presumption it the same cause did for them all.
• Understanding probabilities.