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So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves. | So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves. | ||
And it is all to do with when | And it is all to do with what happens when apparently harmless [[normal distribution]]s, like those which seem to govern the purchase of lentils, reveal themselves not to be normal after all. Suddenly, when you are so many [[standard deviation]]s from the [[mean]] that probability theory tells you the risk is ''as good as zero'', the elegant symmetry of the bell curve goes to hell. We’re talking about [[fat tail]]s. | ||
===Lentils in peacetime=== | ===Lentils in peacetime=== | ||
In ordinary times, our lentil-buying habits are regular: hippies and vegans buy a lot of lentils, and everyone else buys none. Okay, ''almost'' none. The [[Reasonable man|person on the Clapham Omnibus]] might have ''one'' tin, at the back of the cupboard, that someone got in a weak moment years ago, just in case of unexpected apocalypse or visit from long-lost, vegan, cousin from Australia. | In ordinary times, our lentil-buying habits are regular: hippies and vegans buy a lot of lentils, and everyone else buys none. Okay, ''almost'' none. The [[Reasonable man|person on the Clapham Omnibus]] might have ''one'' tin, at the back of the cupboard, that someone got in a weak moment years ago, just in case of unexpected apocalypse or visit from long-lost, vegan, cousin from Australia. |