Lentil convexity: Difference between revisions

Lentil convexity (view source)

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 So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves.
-And it is all to do with when seemingly [[normal distribution]]s reveal themselves not to be normal after all. The elegant symmetry of the bell curve goes to hell when you are so many [[standard deviation]]s from the [[mean]], that probability theory tells you the risk of independent events happening this far out is ''as good as zero''. We’re talking about [[fat tails]], [[lazengem]].
+And it is all to do with what happens when apparently harmless [[normal distribution]]s, like those which seem to govern the purchase of lentils, reveal themselves not to be normal after all. Suddenly, when you are so many [[standard deviation]]s from the [[mean]] that probability theory tells you the risk is ''as good as zero'', the elegant symmetry of the bell curve goes to hell. We’re talking about [[fat tail]]s.
 ===Lentils in peacetime===
 In ordinary times, our lentil-buying habits are regular: hippies and vegans buy a lot of lentils, and everyone else buys none. Okay, ''almost'' none. The [[Reasonable man|person on the Clapham Omnibus]] might have ''one'' tin, at the back of the cupboard, that someone got in a weak moment years ago, just in case of unexpected apocalypse or visit from long-lost, vegan, cousin from Australia.