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An excellent page of resources on [[Goodhart’s law]] to be found [https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/goodharts-law here]. | An excellent page of resources on [[Goodhart’s law]] to be found [https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/goodharts-law here]. | ||
Regressive | *'''Regressive''': using a single metric as a proxy to measure a phenomenon that is actually [[multivariate]] — caused by several factors. Here [[Simpson ’s paradox]] is not your friend. | ||
*'''Extremal''': Where a the metric is a useful indicator under normal circumstances — [[Mediocristan]], but breaks down in extremes or unusual cases — [[Extremistan]]. Paging Messrs [[Black Scholes option pricing model|Black and Scholes]]. You know, using [[normal distribution]]s of independent events to model dependent events, like human behaviour of the market. | |||
*'''Causal''': the old [[correlation]] is not the same as [[causation]] chestnut. | |||
*'''Adversarial''': Substitute targeting the desired outcome — a senior tranche in a portfolio of mortgages that will not default in any circumstances — with one that is rated AAA. Hello, [[global financial crisis]]. | |||
{{Outsourcing}} | {{Outsourcing}} | ||
*[[Beware of shorthand]] | *[[Beware of shorthand]] | ||
*[[Multivariate]] factors |