Technological unemployment: Difference between revisions

no edit summary
No edit summary
No edit summary
Line 1: Line 1:
{{a|tech|[[File:BS bingo.png|450px|frame|center|This graphic courtesy of the JC’s own spurious correlations research programme]]}}One of the great {{t|dogma}}s.
{{a|tech|[[File:BS bingo.png|450px|frame|center|This graphic courtesy of the JC’s own spurious correlations research programme]]}}One of the great {{t|dogma}}s.


As articulated by Keynes: “unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”<ref>Keynes: ''Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren''</ref>. It is fairly obvious that this can only ever be a temporary effect: the entrepreneurial possibilities created by freeing labour up from one occupation to do anything else must mean in the long run ''there can be no technological unemployment''. But — just try telling that to {{author|Daniel Susskind}}.<ref>We say to him what we [[The Singularity is Near - Book Review|said a decade]] ago to {{author|Ray Kurzweil}}: “... it’s easy to be smug as I type on my decidedly physical computer, showing no signs of being superseded with VR Goggles just yet and we’re only six months from the new decade, [''note: that was the '''last''' decade.''] but, being as path-dependent as it is the evolutionary process is notoriously bad at making predictions — until the results are in.”</ref>
As articulated by Keynes: “unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”<ref>Keynes: ''Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren''</ref>. You would think that this can only ever be a temporary effect: the entrepreneurial possibilities created by freeing labour up from one occupation to do anything else must mean in the long run ''there can be no technological unemployment''. History definitely tells us that. But — just try telling that to {{author|Daniel Susskind}}. [[This time is different]].<ref>We say to him what we [[The Singularity is Near - Book Review|said a decade]] ago to {{author|Ray Kurzweil}}: “... it’s easy to be smug as I type on my decidedly physical computer, showing no signs of being superseded with VR Goggles just yet and we’re only six months from the new decade, [''note: that was the '''last''' decade.''] but, being as path-dependent as it is the evolutionary process is notoriously bad at making predictions — until the results are in.”</ref>


To our simplistic way of looking at it, to believe the contrary is to be afflicted by, at least, a lack of imagination — and really, a lack of ''wisdom'' — the kind you can only get from the school of ''life''. And, in any case, the whole edifice of technological development is founded on that being utterly wrong. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and the history of technology is the accidental discovery of whole new ways of dealing with old problems. Old problem goes away and in its place we find a range up untapped, hitherto unimagined ''possibilities''.  
To the [[JC]]s’ simplistic way of looking at it, to believe the contrary is to be afflicted by, at least, a lack of imagination — and really, a lack of ''wisdom'' — the kind you can only get from the school of ''life''. And, in any case, the whole edifice of technological development is founded on a different premise: that there is more than one way to skin a cat, and the history of technology is the accidental discovery of whole new ways of not just skinning old cats, but then figuring out what to do with the skins, and the cats.
 
The history of the world so far: we solve old problems, usually by accident. Old problem goes away and in its place we find a range up untapped, hitherto unimagined ''possibilities''.  
 
Machines aren’t awfully good at imagining hitherto unforeseeable possibilities, and no, being good at Go or Chess doesn’t falsify that observation.<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this the {{google2|Ludic Fallacy}}.</ref>


If there were only way you ever could do things, and we had already found it, you technologists, futurologists and millenarians can get your coats. But that’s plainly nonsense. Did DARPA, when it invested the internet, have ''Gangnam Style'' in mind? Did Apple, anticipate all the applications to which you could put an iPhone? Has the internet, or the smartphone iPhone destroyed, or ''created'', commercial activity?
If there were only way you ever could do things, and we had already found it, you technologists, futurologists and millenarians can get your coats. But that’s plainly nonsense. Did DARPA, when it invested the internet, have ''Gangnam Style'' in mind? Did Apple, anticipate all the applications to which you could put an iPhone? Has the internet, or the smartphone iPhone destroyed, or ''created'', commercial activity?