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Technological unemployment: Difference between revisions
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The history of the world so far: we solve old problems, usually by accident. Old problem goes away and in its place we find a range up untapped, hitherto unimagined ''possibilities''. | The history of the world so far: we solve old problems, usually by accident. Old problem goes away and in its place we find a range up untapped, hitherto unimagined ''possibilities''. | ||
Machines aren’t awfully good at imagining hitherto unforeseeable possibilities, let alone figuring out how to exploit them. And no, being good at Go or Chess doesn’t falsify that observation.<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this the “ludic fallacy”. {{google2|Ludic|Fallacy}}.</ref> | Machines aren’t awfully good at imagining hitherto unforeseeable possibilities, let alone figuring out how to exploit them. And no, being good at Go or Chess doesn’t falsify that observation.<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this the “ludic fallacy”. {{google2|Ludic|Fallacy}}.</ref> Machines are good at doing what someone has figured out needs to be done, now, only faster. They require configuration, programming and implementation. Machines can make [[A faster horse - technology article|faster horses]]. They won’t imagine an alternative future for you. | ||
We are in the middle of a Cambrian explosion of innovations. The one thing we can be assured won’t work right now are [[A faster horse - technology article|faster horses]]. | |||
If there were only way you ever could do things, and we had already found it, you technologists, futurologists and millenarians can get your coats. But that’s plainly nonsense. Did DARPA, when it invested the internet, have ''Gangnam Style'' in mind? Did Apple, anticipate all the applications to which you could put an iPhone? Has the internet, or the smartphone iPhone destroyed, or ''created'', commercial activity? | If there were only way you ever could do things, and we had already found it, you technologists, futurologists and millenarians can get your coats. But that’s plainly nonsense. Did DARPA, when it invested the internet, have ''Gangnam Style'' in mind? Did Apple, anticipate all the applications to which you could put an iPhone? Has the internet, or the smartphone iPhone destroyed, or ''created'', commercial activity? | ||