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Lentil convexity: Difference between revisions
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So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves. | So it turns out we haven’t been panic hoarding lentils after all. There is a benign explanation for the sudden disappearance of split peas from the nation’s grocery shelves. | ||
And it is all to do with when seemingly [[normal distribution]]s reveal themselves to be [[ | And it is all to do with when seemingly [[normal distribution]]s reveal themselves not to be normal after all. The elegant symmetry of the bell curve goes to hell six or more [[standard deviation]]s out, where normal distribution theory tells you the risk of something happening out here as good as ''zero''. We’re talking about [[fat tails]]. | ||
===Lentils in peacetime=== | ===Lentils in peacetime=== | ||
In ordinary times, our lentil-buying habits are regular: hippies and vegans buy a lot of lentils, and everyone else buys none. Okay, ''almost'' none. The [[Reasonable man|person on the Clapham Omnibus]] might have ''one'' tin, at the back of the cupboard, that someone got in a weak moment years ago, just in case of unexpected apocalypse or visit from long-lost, vegan, cousin from Australia. | In ordinary times, our lentil-buying habits are regular: hippies and vegans buy a lot of lentils, and everyone else buys none. Okay, ''almost'' none. The [[Reasonable man|person on the Clapham Omnibus]] might have ''one'' tin, at the back of the cupboard, that someone got in a weak moment years ago, just in case of unexpected apocalypse or visit from long-lost, vegan, cousin from Australia. | ||
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{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
*[[ | *[[Fat tails]] | ||
{{ref}} | {{ref}} | ||