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This is the human condition, summarised. Only ''once it has happened'' — [[past tense]] — and often, only months or years after that, can we ''possibly'' apprehend the significance of unexpected events. | This is the human condition, summarised. Only ''once it has happened'' — [[past tense]] — and often, only months or years after that, can we ''possibly'' apprehend the significance of unexpected events. | ||
===The category error: providing for the future by reference to the past=== | ===The category error: providing for the future by reference to the past=== | ||
This is where my friend the middle manager makes his [[category error]]. [[Data]] all come from the same place: [[Past results are no guarantee of future performance|the past]]. When we review risks, catastrophes and step changes; when we consider [[punctuated equilibrium|punctuations to the equilibrium]] | This is where my friend the middle manager makes his [[category error]]. [[Data]] all come from the same place: [[Past results are no guarantee of future performance|the past]]. When we review risks, catastrophes and step-changes; when we consider [[punctuated equilibrium|punctuations to the equilibrium]] be they fair or foul, our wisdom, our careful analysis, our sage opinions, our hot takes, our [[thought leader]]ship — ''all'' of these are [[Second-order derivative|derived]] from, predicated on, and delimited by [[data]] which, when the event played out, ''we did not have''. | ||
And herein lies the tension and profound dilemma of the received approach to modern legal practice. For we commercial lawyers are charged with anticipating ''the [[future]]'' and but sent out to battle armed with a methodology drawn exclusively from ''the [[past]]''. Just occasionally, this [[dissonance]] rears up and hits us: the financial controller who must hold capital against shortcomings in a contract documenting a transaction that has already matured — a risk that has not come about, even though the reporting period rubles on: the formal imperatives of [[legibility]] taking priority over the logic of common sense. | And herein lies the tension and profound dilemma of the received approach to modern legal practice. For we commercial lawyers are charged with anticipating ''the [[future]]'' and but sent out to battle armed with a methodology drawn exclusively from ''the [[past]]''. Just occasionally, this [[dissonance]] rears up and hits us: the financial controller who must hold capital against shortcomings in a contract documenting a transaction that has already matured — a risk that has not come about, even though the reporting period rubles on: the formal imperatives of [[legibility]] taking priority over the logic of common sense. | ||