82,853
edits
Something for the weekend, sir?: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
Amwelladmin (talk | contribs) No edit summary |
Amwelladmin (talk | contribs) No edit summary |
||
| Line 24: | Line 24: | ||
A running theme in the [[JC]] is the distinction between top-down and bottom-up of organisation models. | A running theme in the [[JC]] is the distinction between top-down and bottom-up of organisation models. | ||
The financial services world is currently in the swoon of a passionate love affair with [[data]], [[technology]] and the [[algorithm]]. [[Thought leader]]s perceive an inevitable, short, path to a [[singularity]] where everything can be planned, everything calculated, everything provisioned, and reliance on on irrational, costly, inconstant, error-prone | The financial services world is currently in the swoon of a passionate love affair with [[data]], [[technology]] and the [[algorithm]]. [[Thought leader]]s perceive an inevitable, short, path to a [[singularity]] where everything can be planned, everything calculated, everything provisioned, and reliance on on irrational, costly, inconstant, error-prone [[meatsacks]] will finally be indefensible. [[This time is different]]; a we have before us a future of [[technological unemployment]] and unlimited leisure. The challenge is going to be figuring out what to do with all our spare time. | ||
As you will know by now the [[JC]] is a crusty old refusenik, and while that is in great part a function of self-interest — he ''is'' an irrational, costly, inconstant, error-prone [[meatsack]] — there are broader metaphysical considerations at play. | |||
Before we mortgage our futures to the machine, it is worth nutting through the digital prophecies to see if they hold water. | |||
Every story needs a narrative — if that isn’t to beg the question — and this one starts with a fundamental, philosophical divide: between one on hand ''[[determinism]]'': the view that the causal principle holds, all outcomes can and where possible should be calculated from first principles, the principle challenge is outright data processing capacity; and on the other ''[[pragmatism]]'': the view that, whether that’s true or not, it’s too hard, to constraining, and it’s better to live with uncertainty and figure things out as we go. | |||
[[Determinism]] begets [[modernism]] and aspires to ''centralisation'': processing power is aggregated, optimised and the main function of management is orderly administration and maintenance of a machine which will, by operation of logic, dispense optimal outcomes. | |||
[[Pragmatism]] begets [[systems thinking]] and aspires to ''decentralisation'': the world is a fundamentally unpredictable thing, best dealt with experienced experts, and the main function of management is to empower and equip experts and optimise their ability to communicate. | |||
[[Algorithm]]s versus [[heuristic]]s. | |||
[[Perfection is the enemy of good enough|''Perfection'' versus ''good enough'']]. | |||
===[[Modernism]]=== | ===[[Modernism]]=== | ||
The top down models are basically “[[modernist]]” in the sense of Le Corbusier’s urban planning. | The top-down models are basically “[[modernist]]” in the sense of Le Corbusier’s urban planning. They view organisations as [[complicated]] machines, ultimately directed and controlled by a homunculus sitting at the bridge in a kind of [[Cartesian theatre]]. [[Form]]al design is important, and follows (centrally determined) function; the better regimented the parts of your contraption and the more efficient it is, the better it will navigate the crises and opportunities presented by the environment in which it operates — the market. Modernism regards the market — for all practical purposes — as an infinitely complicated mathematical problem: hard, but ultimately calculable. Modellable. So when the model turns out not to work, the answer is to develop it. | ||
Thus Basel I was 20 pages, Basel II, 60 pages, Basel III 400 pages. We are asymptotically tending to to perfection. | Thus Basel I was 20 pages, Basel II, 60 pages, Basel III 400 pages. We are asymptotically tending to to perfection. | ||