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*Credit crunch of 2007 | *Credit crunch of 2007 | ||
== | ==The disaster cafe== | ||
{{Roll of honour}} | {{Roll of honour}} | ||
==Theories== | ==Theories== | ||
===Disbelief-suspenders=== | ===Disbelief-suspenders=== | ||
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**LTCM: reliance on Black Scholes notwithstanding it's failure to manage tail events | **LTCM: reliance on Black Scholes notwithstanding it's failure to manage tail events | ||
**WireCard: BaFin not able to believe that this could be corporate fraud when "mendacious short-selling" by "locust" hedge funds - aided and abetted by, ahh, investigative FT journalists - fit the BaFin's regulatory world view and seemed a better story. | **WireCard: BaFin not able to believe that this could be corporate fraud when "mendacious short-selling" by "locust" hedge funds - aided and abetted by, ahh, investigative FT journalists - fit the BaFin's regulatory world view and seemed a better story. | ||
*'''Sleepy backwater''': It’s a boring and unglamorous part of the operational network. No one’s taking any risks there: Libor, Kerviel, Abodolo. | *'''Sleepy backwater''': It’s a boring and unglamorous part of the operational network. No one’s taking any risks there: [[Barclays Programme Limit]], [[Excess margin]] return in [[Archegos]], [[Libor]], Kerviel, Abodolo. | ||
==Cassandras== | ==Cassandras== | ||
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*'''Hostility''': combative/aggressive demeanour to criticism | *'''Hostility''': combative/aggressive demeanour to criticism | ||
*'''This is different how?''': To what extent is “fake it till you make it” bravura, and how much is it confidence in your ability to sort it out later, or big opportunities. Is there a difference? | *'''This is different how?''': To what extent is “fake it till you make it” bravura, and how much is it confidence in your ability to sort it out later, or big opportunities. Is there a difference? | ||
*'''[[Performative]], [[virtue signalling]] behaviour''': making it difficult to quibble/criticise without seeming politically incorrect | *'''[[Performative]], [[virtue signalling]] behaviour''': making it difficult to quibble/criticise without seeming politically incorrect. | ||
===All is not well=== | ===All is not well=== | ||
*'''High turnover''': Especially when combined with confidentiality. Especially risk/control personnel. Workplace bullying etc. | *'''High turnover''': Especially when combined with confidentiality. Especially risk/control personnel. Workplace bullying etc. | ||