What We Owe The Future: Difference between revisions

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 Per the [[entropy|second law of thermodynamics]] but pace Pink Floyd, there is but ''one'' possible past, ''one'' possible now, and an infinite array of  possible futures stretching out into an unknown black void. Some short, some long, some dystopian, some enlightened. Some cut off by apocalypse, some fading gently into warm entropic soup.
-William MacAskill’s premise is this: barring near-term cataclysm, there are so many more people in our species’ future than in its present, that our  duty of care to those yet to come swamps our own short-term interests.
+William MacAskill’s premise is this: barring near-term cataclysm, there are so many more people in our species’ future than in its present, that our  duty of care to them swamps our interests in each other in the present.
-We are minding the shop not just for our children and grandchildren but for generations millennia hence. ''Thousands'' of millennia hence, in deep time.
+We are minding the shop not just for our children and grandchildren but for generations millennia hence. ''Thousands'' of millennia hence.
-But here is his first logical lacuna. The causal chain behind us stretches unbroken back to where records begin. Behind us, the probability of each successive step is 1. As the saying goes, it is easy to be wise in hindsight.
+But the causal chain behind us is unbroken back to where records begin. The probability, now, of each historical event is 1. It is easy to be wise in hindsight.
-But in front of us, alternate possibilities branch into the infinite. Over a generation or two it is easy enough to anticipate and provide for our own progeny. [[Darwin’s Dangerous Idea|Darwin’s dangerous algorithm]] naturally wires us to do this.
+It is a different story out in front. Alternate possibilities branch every which way into the infinite. Over a generation or two we have a fair, if imperfect, chance of anticipating and making rough provision for our progeny. [[Darwin’s Dangerous Idea|Darwin’s dangerous algorithm]] naturally wires us to do this.
-But over million years — being the average lifespan of a mammalian species, MacAskill informs us — the gargantuan mass of non-linear interactions between trillions of co-evolving organisms in our hypercomplex ecosystem, mean our possible future is so [[uncertain]] and disparate that we cannot possibly predict the effect of our actions today.
+But over millions of years — being the average lifespan of a mammalian species, MacAskill informs us — the gargantuan mass of non-linear interactions between trillions of co-evolving organisms in our hypercomplex ecosystem, ''anything'' could happen.
 Causality may or may not be true, but forward progress in an open ecosystem of independent agents is [[non-linear]]. There is no “if-this-then-that” over five years, let alone fifty, let alone ''five million''.