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What We Owe The Future: Difference between revisions
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This is absurd. Literally countless determining forks happen every day, everywhere. Most of them are entirely beyond our control. ''Some'' future is assured. What it is, and who will enjoy it, is literally impossible to know. This [[uncertainty]] is a profoundly important engine of our non-zero-sum existence. | This is absurd. Literally countless determining forks happen every day, everywhere. Most of them are entirely beyond our control. ''Some'' future is assured. What it is, and who will enjoy it, is literally impossible to know. This [[uncertainty]] is a profoundly important engine of our non-zero-sum existence. | ||
=== | === “Expected value” theory does not help === | ||
MacAskill uses [[probability]] theory (again: too many books, not enough common sense) and what financiers might call “linear interpolation” to deduce, from what has already happened in the world, a theory about what will happen, and what we should therefore do to accommodate the forthcoming throng. | MacAskill uses [[probability]] theory (again: too many books, not enough common sense) and what financiers might call “linear interpolation” to deduce, from what has already happened in the world, a theory about what will happen, and what we should therefore do to accommodate the forthcoming throng. | ||
But [[probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability when rolling a die is ⅙ because it has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. This is an artificial, tight, closed system. We can only calculate an expected value ''because'' of this artificially constrained outcome. Probabilities only work for such [[finite game]]s. | But [[probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability when rolling a die is ⅙ because it has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. This is an artificial, tight, closed system. We can only calculate an [[expected value]] ''because'' of this artificially constrained outcome. Probabilities only work for such [[finite game]]s. | ||
''Almost nothing in everyday life works like that''.<ref>Ironically, not even dice: even a carefully machined die will not have exactly even sides and may fall off the table, or land crookedly, or fracture on landing!</ref> | ''Almost nothing in everyday life works like that''.<ref>Ironically, not even dice: even a carefully machined die will not have exactly even sides and may fall off the table, or land crookedly, or fracture on landing!</ref> | ||